New energy auto industry policy changes will be differentiated next year

According to the data of China Automobile Association, from January to October this year, China's new energy vehicles produced 355,000 vehicles and sold 337,000 vehicles, up 77.9% and 82.2% respectively. Among them, pure electric vehicles produced and sold 276,000 and 258,000, respectively, up 98.1% and 102.5% year-on-year; plug-in hybrid vehicles produced and sold 79,000 units, up 31.0% and 37.2% respectively. Under the influence of the policy, passenger cars accounted for the absolute mainstream, pure electric passenger cars accounted for 52%, plug-in passenger cars accounted for 20%, and pure electric commercial vehicles accounted for 25%.

Looking at the October data alone, the main reason for the slowdown in the growth rate is the initial development of the industry. The Ministry of Finance and other departments have repeatedly mentioned the need to adjust the existing subsidy methods, but the policy has been delayed. Landing, causing industry sales to be affected in the short term. The secondary market segment is not as good as the first half of the year in the second half of the year. Once the policy is clear and the existing problems are resolved, the entire industry will take off again.

Policy or three major changes

In 2015, the government hopes to develop new energy vehicles and achieve three major demands for energy conservation, emission reduction, industrial upgrading and energy security. Therefore, it has formulated a strong purchase subsidy and purchase tax reduction policy, and has set a target of cumulative sales of 5 million vehicles in 2020. .

However, the loopholes in the subsidy policy led to the mad rush in the end of 2015. The sales in the last three months accounted for more than half of the whole year, and some of the car companies appeared to be cheating. Capital has entered the new energy automobile industry in a large amount, but companies with core technologies are very scarce.

Based on the current situation and in conjunction with the position of the competent authorities, we judge that the new energy vehicle industry policy will have the following three major changes.

First, reduce over-subsidies to moderate subsidies. The subsidies for some models will be significantly reduced, especially in the area of ​​passenger cars in the hardest hit areas. However, we do not think that this is a major negative for the industry. The core purpose of subsidy adjustment is to optimize resource allocation on the basis of ensuring the economics of new energy vehicles. After the resource allocation is optimized, the same amount of subsidy funds can drive the sales of a larger number of new energy vehicles.

Second, raise the threshold for subsidies. Industrial upgrading is one of the core demands of the government to develop new energy vehicles. However, under the temptation of high subsidies, the participants have mixed advantages and low-end production capacity. Therefore, in the initial stage of the industry, the government has upgraded the industry access and subsidy threshold to ensure the healthy growth of the industry.

Finally, create a more complete policy system. This part of the work has been at the stage of landing, similar to the battery catalog, carbon credit system and other policies gradually, the future industrial policy will form a perfect system to regulate the orderly and healthy development of the entire industry chain.

The market will divide next year

In 2017, the new energy auto industry will usher in a new round of positive feedback process after the negative feedback mechanism adjustment. We expect the industry to bid farewell to barbaric growth, ushered in more healthy and orderly growth, and there are three major divisions:

First, sales have grown rapidly but the structure has diverged. Among the three types of vehicles, passenger cars have the largest market space (15 million) and the lowest penetration rate (2%), which will maintain high-speed growth and become the core position of the market; the passenger car market returns to the essence of commercial vehicles and achieves steady and slow growth; The car market needs to wait for the policy to land, if it is expected to usher in the release of demand. We expect sales of new energy vehicles to be around 650,000 units (including logistics vehicles) in 2017, up 45% year-on-year.

Second, high-end faucets win, and low-end companies are under pressure. Due to the regulation of subsidy catalogues and battery catalogues, the tail enterprises in the industry will be greatly suppressed, and the improvement of battery supply and demand will further increase the market share of leading enterprises. We expect that the power battery industry will have high-end capacity shortage and low-end overcapacity at the same time next year, and the whole market will be divided into two parts for internal competition.

Third, the various links in the industrial chain have become divided. Due to the decline in subsidies and the introduction of new capacity, next year's new energy vehicle industry chain will usher in a wave of price cuts. In the wave of price increases that occurred at the end of 2015, upstream raw materials were the most elastic part. In the tide of price cuts next year, we believe that the upstream raw materials will also be the largest part of the elasticity, while the lithium battery and motor links in the middle reaches are more viscous due to the binding with the OEM.

According to the above phenomenon, the three most important aspects of the investment value of the new energy automobile industry chain in 2017 are the supply chain of leading enterprises, the segmentation areas that conform to technology trends and the most price-intensive links. According to statistics, the leading companies in the leading and leading supply chain can focus on: Maoshuo Power Supply, Aoyang Shunchang, Pioneer Intelligence, Senyuan Electric, Guoxuan Hi-Tech.

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