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In 2014, it will officially enter the history of the New Year's bell. It was originally thought that 2014 will complete its historical mission in a summary. I have never thought, on December 29, according to China Voices microblogging news, at 18 o'clock on the evening of December 29, Shenzhen City will begin to implement the automobile purchase restriction policy, the validity period is tentatively set for five years, and the tentative target is 100,000 per year. 20,000 indicators are only for electric cars, taking the number one; 80,000 ordinary car indicators, 50% using the lottery, 50% taking the bid. The annual indicator is adjusted in a timely manner depending on the traffic, atmospheric environment and automobile demand. The purchase restriction in Shenzhen has also increased the number of car-restricted cities in the country to eight. Unlike other cities that open a window for new energy vehicles, Shenzhen has added electric vehicles to the limit of purchases this time. This move by Shenzhen once again pushed the issue of purchase restriction to the wave of public opinion.
Let's start with a simple talk about the purchase restriction. Why do you limit purchase? In fact, if you list a few cities with restrictions on purchase, you can get two keywords, one is to solve the congestion, and the other is to prevent environmental pollution. The original intention of most cities to limit purchases is to ease traffic pressure, or the purchase restriction laws issued before 2012 are the first starting point to solve urban congestion. However, in recent years, the continuous large-scale haze in northern China has raised the air quality problem to an unprecedented height. Since 2012, the state has carried out key monitoring of PM2.5 in key areas such as the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. Therefore, in the purchase restriction issued after 2012, factors that alleviate environmental pressures began to appear. For example, in the Guangzhou purchase restriction notice, it is clearly stated that the purchase restriction is not only to ensure the effective operation of urban traffic, but also to improve and protect the air quality. Need, the word of the atmospheric environment also appeared in the purchase restriction order in Shenzhen.
When the private car just entered the family, the medium and large cities once became an important support for Chinese car sales with its strong market demand. However, after more than a decade of spurt growth, these large and medium-sized cities that once carried China's automobile sales have also adopted a purchase restriction to resist the growth of automobile sales. The transformation of this offensive and defensive is actually the concentrated outbreak of contradictions between China after the rapid entry into the automobile society.
If nothing unexpected, China’s auto consumer market will once again top the world’s auto consumer market with more than 24 million vehicles in 2014, and with huge internal demand, in the upcoming 2015 China auto consumer market. Will continue to sing along the road of growth. From the perspective of the entire industry, China's auto industry has shown a thriving and thriving scene under the continuous growth of consumer demand. According to the statistics of the Traffic Management Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security, as of November 27, 2014, the number of civilian motor vehicles in the country has reached 264 million, of which 154 million are automobiles, and the number of automobiles is second only to the United States. There is also a rapid growth in car sales.
In 2000, the number of private passenger cars in the country was 3 million. In 2014, the number of private passenger cars in the country has reached 104 million. In fourteen years, the number of private cars in China has tripled, with 25 private cars per 100 households. In cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, the number of private cars in 100 households has even exceeded 60. This means that China has quickly entered the automotive society. However, corresponding to the rapid development of automobile growth rate is the lag in urban transportation construction and the lag in supporting facilities such as parking lot construction. This has led to a rapid increase in car sales that far exceeds the supply of urban resources, which has led to the most direct contradiction between the two – traffic congestion and parking difficulties. For medium and large-sized cities, the problem of traffic congestion and parking makes the efficiency of residents' travels greatly reduced, and the cost of travel is high, which directly affects the happiness index of residents and the development of urban economy. The reason why more and more large and medium-sized cities join the purchase restriction is probably to improve and optimize the urban transportation facilities by reducing the growth rate of motor vehicle ownership. From the perspective of Shenzhen's purchase restriction policy, the scope of including electric vehicles in the purchase restriction is obviously the first place to consider the governance congestion. Otherwise, the Shenzhen Municipal Government has no reason to exclude such new energy vehicles that are promoted throughout the country. Outside the scope of the free purchase.
However, what we should notice in this process is that although large and medium-sized cities have opened the window of purchase restriction, the number of motor vehicles is still growing. The problem of congestion will not be alleviated by the issuance of the purchase restriction. . In this case, if the pace of urban infrastructure construction still lags behind, then the problem of congestion will continue to intensify. From another perspective, the strong rigid demand in China's auto consumer market will not decline due to the emergence of large-scale city purchase restrictions. From the situation of Beijing and Shanghai, the scope of purchase restriction is relatively small. For the consumers who really have the demand for car purchase, most of them will solve the problem of car use by means of hanging a foreign license. It is not a big deal to enter the urban area, let alone large and medium-sized cities. The urban area does not necessarily have a place to park. After entering the automobile society, the property of the car has become the daily consumer goods of the people, and life is closely related to it. Therefore, the promulgation of the purchase restriction can only be regarded as a temporary measure. The problem of solving the congestion of medium and large-sized cities must be grasped from the root cause. Reasonable planning of urban layout and reasonable arrangement of public transportation are the only solutions to the problem. This is a contradiction between the speed and the slowness of China's automobile society.
Next, let's take a look at the contradiction between the two fast. The series of problems brought about by China's rapid entry into the automobile society are actually attributed to the fast-growing automobile consumer market and the rapid growth of automobile production. Obviously, the introduction of the purchase restriction has highlighted the rapid development of the automobile industry and the rapid transition into the automobile society. The rapid development of the automobile industry has brought considerable GDP to the country, which has driven the development of a large number of related industries in the upstream and downstream. The strong demand in China's auto consumer market has also provided a lucrative source of profit for these rapidly expanding production capacity. However, with the introduction of more and more city purchase restrictions, can China's auto industry continue to lead the world trend in small steps? This is really hard to say, then how to solve the problem of the decline of the automobile industry brought about by this situation? I remember that after the introduction of the purchase restriction policy in Beijing in 2011, the overall sales volume of the automobile market in the first half of 2012 also ushered in the decline in growth rate. It can be seen that the role of medium and large-sized cities plays an important role in the development of the entire automobile industry. How to balance the contradiction between the two is also a big problem that the government needs to weigh in the post-restriction order era.
In fact, in the final analysis, it is still a fast word. China's economy is growing at a rapid rate that is attracting the world's attention. China's auto market is also rapidly expanding at a speed that is attracting worldwide attention. Such speeds have never been experienced by developed countries such as North America, Europe, and Japan, and their experience can only be used for reference. At present, China is suffering from the pain of rapid growth. The policy and regulations with Chinese characteristics, such as the purchase restriction, highlight the contradictions of all parties in the process of rapid development. If the contradictions are exposed, they can be solved very well, so we have not At this stage, the method evaluates its merits and demerits. It can only be said that existence is justified.
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