Pure electric technology is not stable production volume difficult to develop or re-evaluate hybrid vehicles

How to deal with hybrid vehicles is indeed a problem. After all, the core technologies of current hybrid vehicles are mainly owned by Japanese Toyota and Honda. However, under the pressure of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" for the development goals of the new energy automotive industry, it seems that the development of hybrid vehicles has become a second choice.

Pure electric vehicles are indeed the ultimate goal of the development of new energy vehicles, and China is even in a leading position in pure electric technology, and it is expected to realize the curve overtaking in pure electric vehicles. The problem is that the current pure electric vehicle technology is still immature and products In the case of difficult production, it is necessary to re-evaluate the development of hybrid vehicles.

Electric cars are certainly good at one step and they are afraid of a new pedal. At the end of the last century, Americans sentenced electric vehicles to death. At that time, the European automobile industry advocated the development of diesel vehicles and developed modern features featuring high-pressure injection and turbocharging. Diesel technology, and further applied to the gasoline engine; the United States is that the direct development of hydrogen fuel cells; Japan is in love with hybrid power.

The emergence of affordable, rechargeable lithium-ion batteries in the 1990s has revolutionized the consumer electronics industry, and lithium batteries have opened the door to hope for electric cars. However, lithium-ion batteries are also a developing technology, so electric vehicles will not form a large-scale market in the near future.

The people in the auto industry in the country regard the new energy industry as the competition for the highest levels of competition among the countries in the world. They generally believe that new energy vehicles are a once-in-a-century opportunity for China’s auto industry to achieve a leap-forward development. China is in the same starting line with the world’s automobile powers in the field of new energy vehicles, especially electric vehicles, and Chinese car companies are on new energy vehicles. Already there is a certain amount of technology accumulation, and we have achieved local technological innovation and leadership. Chinese auto companies have high enthusiasm for investing in R&D of new energy vehicles. They are relatively well-funded and have the ability to increase relevant technological inputs. Moreover, in traditional automotive technology, Chinese auto companies have a relatively small set of assets and therefore have lower technology conversion costs.

The Ministry of Science and Technology originally had a statement of “three vertical and three horizontal” for new energy vehicles. The so-called “three verticals” are hybrid vehicles, pure electric vehicles, and fuel cell vehicles; “three horizontal” is a multi-energy powertrain control system, electric motors and Its control system and battery and its management system.

However, in the "Circular on Implementing Private Subsidy for New Energy Vehicle Subsidies" promulgated by the relevant authorities on June 1, 2010, the maximum subsidy for pure electric passenger vehicles is 60,000 yuan per vehicle, and each plug-in hybrid passenger car is The maximum subsidy of 50,000 yuan, hybrid power is classified as energy-saving cars, subsidy of 3,000 yuan.

The person in charge of the relevant department once stated clearly: “Before entering the era of pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles will be a very important transitional model. The government will provide policy and financial support to accelerate the development of plug-in hybrid vehicles. "The commercialization process." Some people also think that in the long run, excluding traditional hybrid and imported electric vehicles from the scope of subsidies will have a positive effect on the country's overall promotion of self-owned brand electric vehicles. This is quite a bit of protectionism, and some companies point out that China is the only country that has implemented different subsidy policies for electric vehicles based on origin.

In fact, the plug-in hybrid power is also a kind of hybrid power. The basic structure is not very different from the traditional hybrid vehicle. Its characteristic is that it can be used to charge the engine and can also be directly charged by the power grid, which solves the problem of inconvenient charging of pure electric vehicles. The problem also solves the problem that hybrid power cannot be recharged from outside.

Hybrid power is considered to be a fuel-efficient model, but the price of the vehicle is more than 100,000 yuan higher than that of ordinary cars. Consumers believe that hybrid cars are more than 30,000 to 50,000 yuan more affordable than comparable-grade fuel-powered cars. However, if it is too high, the saved fuel will not offset the higher price.

The biggest advantage of hybrid power is environmental protection. For traditional cars, the pollution at idle and low speed is the largest, and the emissions at high speeds are good. In low-speed conditions, hybrid power is provided by the battery. At high speed, the engine is put into operation. When plug-in hybrid power is used to charge the engine, the engine operates at a higher speed, so there is no problem of idle-low speed pollution. Taxis and buses in the city have the highest intensity of use, and electric buses are technically feasible. However, the mileage of electric taxis is not enough for taxis a day. Some taxis in Beijing can even run 400 kilometers a day, and there is no time to charge them. Therefore, hybrid taxis should be used to improve air pollution.

In recent years, major European automobile industry groups have also begun to pay attention to hybrid power. This is because the EU’s carbon emissions regulations to be implemented in 2015 require carbon emissions per kilometer to be below 120 grams, or they will face huge fines. Some people have analyzed that for small cars, the average CO2 emissions of some models in 2009 has reached 127 g/km, but the EU's 2020 95 g/km rule will be the limit of technological upgrading. It is possible to achieve 95 g/km technically, but the balance between R&D and production costs must be considered. It is impossible for a large displacement vehicle to rely on the improvement of traditional technologies to achieve this standard of the European Union. Therefore, European automobile companies will sooner or later embark on the path of new energy, and hybrid power will become an alternative solution.

Although traditional internal combustion engines and new energy vehicles may have to coexist for several decades, the improvement of traditional internal combustion engines in controlling emissions is becoming more and more difficult. Hybrid power is a panacea that can make traditional internal combustion engines prolong life. Sooner or later, China will also implement carbon emission control, and then it will be found that hybrid power is indeed a viable option.

Hybrid power is of course a transitional technology, but hybrid power actually includes the three core technologies of electric vehicles: batteries, motors, and electronic control systems. Hybrid power has been formed when existing battery technologies are not yet fully able to meet consumer needs. The large-scale market (Toyota has sold 5 million vehicles in the United States) can use the market income to nurture the development of electric technology and can make a good transition to pure electric vehicles. Electric vehicles can do well in one step, but they are afraid of a foot pedal.

Liu Xia Ding Bin As one of the three major new energy technologies in the automotive industry, hybrid power will become the mainstream technology in the future. The industry has been controversial. Although in the new energy vehicle subsidies implemented last year, hybrid vehicles have not been included in the subsidy range, the revaluation of hybrid vehicle development is being re-emphasized in the industry and the government.

Recently, Dong Yang, Secretary General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, "expressed" in a public occasion. "The future state will introduce a full set of policies on energy-saving and new energy vehicles. Do not use existing policies to speculate that the government only supports pure electric vehicles and does not support oil. Electric hybrid cars, this is misreading.” Dong Yang not only openly supports hybrid technology, but also do not forget to imply that car companies, “Do not relax, relax and lose out.”

The competition for hybrid power As of now, the government has not made clear instructions on which path to take to develop the new energy automobile industry. However, in the "Notice on Launching a Privately-purchased Subsidy Program for New Energy Vehicles" implemented by government departments last year, it explicitly stated that: The subsidy of pure electric vehicles and plug-in electric vehicles reached up to 60,000 yuan and 50,000 yuan, respectively, but for subsidized gasoline-electric hybrid products, the subsidy was classified in the category of "energy-saving cars," and only 3,000 yuan was subsidized.

Through financial leverage, the government's intentions are very clear. Although hybrid technology is more universal in mass production, pure electric technology has been defaulted as the mainstream technology of China's new energy vehicles.

The Ministry of Science and Technology has even formulated and completed the implementation of the “12th Five-Year Plan” for electric vehicles. The main content is to break through the key technologies of electric vehicles such as batteries, motors, and electronic control systems in the next five years, with small pure electric vehicles as the main development direction. In 2015, the battery production cost will be reduced to half of the current price, and the number of electric vehicles will reach 1 million.

Although it is widely believed that electric vehicles are the ultimate personal transportation solutions, the global automotive industry faces the objective reality that battery technology is far from mature. At present, all countries in the world are conducting pure electric vehicle research and development, but no country has yet achieved industrialization. .

Even in Japan, where technology is relatively mature, 2010-2015 is clearly defined as the start of development of pure electric vehicles. The Japanese hybrid vehicles have achieved technological stability and product marketization, and the global ownership of Toyota hybrid vehicles has exceeded 3 million vehicles.

From a technical point of view, the hybrid thermal efficiency can be increased by more than 10% compared with ordinary fuel-engined vehicles, and exhaust emissions can be improved by more than 30%. At the same time, there is no major difference in driving and use feelings from ordinary cars, which makes hybrid power known as the "optimal solution" to the current contradiction between cars and energy.

In a recent survey conducted by Gasgo.com and "First Financial Daily," most people believe that hybrid power is the only way to motorization.

Regarding the selection result of “how to view hybrid vehicles”, the relatively high support ratios are the two options of “just a transitional product” and “the most feasible solution at present”, with support rates of 30% and 26 respectively. %. At the same time, the idea that hybrid power is still the main force of new energy in ten years also received 24% of the votes.

However, as current national policy subsidies tend to be pure electric vehicles, the sales volume of domestic hybrid vehicles has been very limited. Toyota, Honda, and other mainstream car companies sold only a few hundred hybrid vehicles in China last year.

In the joint investigation, regarding what factors currently hinder the development of hybrid vehicles, 19% of participants considered it as "inadequate government support," accounting for the fact that the industry’s share of the industry’s prices was second only to “high product prices”. The biggest obstacle to the development of hybrid cars.

This also shows from the side that the technology of hybrid vehicles has become more mature, and quality and safety are no longer what people are most worried about. Another 15% of people believe that "technology is oligopoly" is also an important factor hindering the development of hybrid power.

At present, Japanese companies have been recognized as leaders in hybrid technology. Toyota and Honda are the two most important companies. The two companies invested heavily in the research and development of hybrid technology as early as ten years ago and have now entered the third generation. Hybrid technology production. In contrast, few companies in other countries can compete with it. There is no enterprise in our country that truly masters mature hybrid vehicle technology.

With the scarcity of technical resources and the protection of patented technology by foreign-funded enterprises, the development of hybrid power in China will obviously not be easy.

Policy turn?

Recently, it was reported that the "Energy-saving and new energy vehicle development plan (2011-2020)" will be formally introduced in the middle of the year. After that, the state will also introduce a more detailed new energy subsidy plan for this new energy vehicle. More detailed, higher compensation.

The reporter then interviewed Zhao Hang, director of the China Automotive Technology and Research Center. He believes that subsidies for hybrid vehicles should be increased. "However, it cannot be a subsidy for a car, but it should be opened up, for example, how much is the 30% subsidy of fuel saving." How much is the fuel-efficient 20% subsidy?” He also said that hybrid vehicles should be included in the energy-saving product sequence and should not be used as a transitional product for electric vehicles.

However, Dong Yang believes that hybrid power will be the most adopted new technology in the next five years and the commercialization prospect is very broad.

In this survey, as many as 57% of people think that “you think China should vigorously develop hybrid vehicles”, hybrid power is the only way to adopt new energy solutions, and the country should strongly support the development of hybrid vehicles. And 33% of participants believe that hybrid power is only a transitional product. The government does not need to push it vigorously. It needs to support electric vehicle technology. Another 10% of the people were unclear and chose not to speak.

After investigating domestic auto companies, the reporter also found similar views. From the current domestic auto group and even the new energy product strategy formulated by the privately-owned auto makers, it can be found that almost all of the companies have also stocked hybrid, pure electric, and even fuel cell technologies. Until national policies have a clear orientation, auto companies generally believe that a rich variety of technology reserves is the best policy.

At the market level, both hybrid and pure electric vehicles face price tests.

In the survey, as many as 50% of participants believe that the price of hybrid vehicles is more than 10% higher than that of conventional power cars of the same level, and even 15% of them think that it is more than 10% higher than traditional cars. . In addition, there are 18% of people think that the price of hybrid cars should keep the same with traditional cars, and another 17% think it should be lower.

Take the Toyota Prius [Review Picture Forum] model with the most mature technology as an example. The Prius sells for 230,000 to 293,000 yuan in China, while the Toyota brand's same-level model Corolla [review image forum] sells for only 12.38 million. 19.98 million yuan, about 50% higher than the price of the Prius, which is difficult for the general public to accept.

Toyota has realized this problem. Toyota Motor Corp.'s vice president and a technical expert known as the "father of the Prius" inside Toyota, Takeshi Uchiyama disclosed in an interview with reporters that in order to be able to enhance the sales of the Prius hybrid vehicle in China. In terms of market performance, Toyota believes that it is necessary to reduce its sales price, and it also needs to be improved in terms of pre-procurement of parts and components.

Facts have proved that how to promote the acceptance of hybrid vehicles by consumers is obviously not one of the strengths of enterprises. It can be decided that the government will play a crucial role in them. This conclusion is also reflected in the survey. As many as 74% of participants believe that hybrid vehicles will undoubtedly require government subsidies before they can be used in the market. Only 20% believe that hybrid vehicles do not require government subsidies. Whether the balance of the illustration/Liu Fei's national policy will eventually favor hybrid vehicles will not be accurate. However, it is certain that reassessment of hybrid vehicles is beneficial to the development of new energy vehicles in China.

The company is aware that by the end of this year, the “10 cities, 1,000 vehicles” new energy demonstration project will soon be due to expire. It is reported that in order to complete the development goals of the new energy automobile industry in the “12th Five-Year Plan” of the automobile, the policy will be for private purchase of hybrid power. Subsidies for vehicles, although this brings some advantages to car companies with advantages in the hybrid field, but under the premise that the current new energy policy is not yet clear, many car companies generally adopt a hybrid and pure electric strategy. To strike a balance between practicality and catering to policies.

At present, only a few companies in China, such as Toyota, GM, Changan, and Honda, have introduced or even launched hybrid vehicles. However, Toyota Prius, Honda Civic [Review Picture Forum] Hybrid, Jun Yue [Review Photo Forum] Hybrid has been discontinued production, the current market for hybrid passenger cars is only Camry [Review Photo Forum] hybrid, Chang'an Jie Xun [Review Photo Forum] Hybrid and Lexus and other luxury brand hybrid products.

Since the launch of the Camry Hybrid in April of last year, its sales volume has barely reached 2,000 units, far below the 500-month sales target set at the beginning of the listing. However, this is already the best result of China's domestic hybrid products. In 2005, the domestic Prius sold only 3,700 vehicles when it stopped production in 2009.

Changan Automobile is one of the few companies in China that has always insisted on the development of hybrid technology. As early as 2009, its Jiexun hybrid was sold to private consumers in Chongqing. However, up to now, Jie Xun has sold less than 500 vehicles, and almost all of it is for the business and rental markets of 25 new energy demonstration cities. In the demonstration city, Jie Xun can receive a subsidy of 36,000 yuan.

Ren Yong, deputy general manager of Chang'an New Energy Automobile Company, told reporters that the reason why hybrid power in the private consumer market has not opened up, mainly because there is no subsidy, the price is too high compared to traditional fuel vehicles, consumers are reluctant to buy.

Regarding the possibility that the hybrid might receive subsidies, a car company official told reporters: “We have this trend and we have heard about it, but when it comes out, it is still not easy to say.” And how specific subsidies are still unknown? .

In the case of unclear policies, car companies generally adopt a hybrid and pure electric strategy. “We are preparing for the introduction of the third-generation Prius.” Niu Jin, a spokesman for Toyota China, told reporters that after the plug-in Prius's road test is completed, it will be imported into domestic production. Toyota, which has gone farthest in hybrid technology, is also planning to promote electric vehicles in China.

Ren Yong stated that Chang'an's consistent development strategy for hybrid power is to operate on a scale and market basis, and to consolidate the advantages of hybrids. For pure electric, it is to accelerate the pace of industrialization research and development.

In addition to policy guidance, the choice between hybrids and pure electric vehicles by auto companies depends on their own technological reserves. In terms of technical complexity, pure electric power is relatively simpler than hybrid power, but the promotion of pure electric industrialization is relatively difficult. The battery and electronic control of electric vehicles are still immature, the cost is relatively high, and the dependence on the infrastructure is also relatively large.

At this year's Shanghai Auto Show, Honda announced that from 2012 onwards, Guangzhou Automobile Honda will import and sell the hybrid CR-Z [Review Picture Forum] and FIT Hybrid, and Dongfeng Honda will import and sell the new INSIGHT.

Honda Automobile President Ito Takahiro stated that hybrid power is the most practical environmental protection technology at this stage. Honda is striving to promote the preparation of hybrid vehicles for local production. It will also consider purchasing hybrid components such as batteries and motors in China to further localize environmental technologies.

On the other hand, in the field of electric vehicles, Honda has recently reached agreement with Guangzhou City and Guangzhou Automobile Group on the testing of electric vehicles. Through testing, it has verified the practicality and convenience of electric vehicles being developed by Honda in Guangzhou, and discussed and popularized. The social infrastructure needed for electric vehicles.

Wang Lige, “There is no Camry in the store [review picture forum] hybrid, the car can only be set after 3 months in order to get a car, and the discount is not much.” Guangqi Toyota 4S shop sales consultant told “First Financial Daily”, “nearly People buy this car and sell one for one month."

Many customers have come to inquire, but after hearing the price, they have no interest. The sales consultant stated that because the "hybrid model is 100,000 yuan higher than the traditional model at the same level." However, in addition to the Camry Hybrid, the Honda Civic [Summary Picture Forum] hybrid vehicles and other hybrid models also have high barriers to price, which is the main reason for the disappointing sales of hybrid vehicles.

In April last year, GAC Toyota launched a total of three models of Camry hybrids, priced at more than 310,000 yuan each, compared to the same level of the traditional Camry price of only 200,000 yuan, the spread between the two about 100,000 yuan.

According to GAC Toyota dealers, the Camry Hybrid has a fuel consumption of 6L per 100 kilometers, which is about 40% lower than that of gasoline vehicles of the same class; an ordinary car can run at least 300,000 kilometers during its normal life cycle, even if the number of gasoline is 93. Price 7 yuan / L calculation, from the beginning of the purchase for the owner to save at least 84,000 yuan, if the oil prices continue to rise, you can save more.

However, compared with the savings of 100,000 yuan and the purchase cost of more than 100,000 yuan, hybrid vehicles do not have much advantage. According to the calculation of 40,000 kilometers a year, the savings of 84,000 yuan need to wait for 7 to 8 years to fully convert, so the savings are a bit like tasteless.

Li Shengmao, a researcher in the new energy industry of China Investment Advisors, believes that the gap between domestic new energy vehicles and the advanced automobile countries for a long time in terms of industrialization and marketing is very large, mainly because the price of hybrid vehicles is too high, which has inhibited many consumers. The desire to buy.

According to the "China's New Energy Vehicle Industry Analysis and Investment Advisory Report 2010-2015" issued by the China Investment Advisor, the current domestic price of hybrid vehicles is at least 30% higher than the average displacement of internal combustion engine-driven cars. If a conventional car is priced at 100,000 yuan, the same model of hybrid sedans will cost at least 20,000 yuan more. According to the calculation of 30,000 kilometers of cars per year, if the price of oil is 10 yuan/liter, the energy efficiency of hybrid vehicles must reach 20,000 yuan, which will take 4.3 years. The lower the oil price, the longer the recovery period. The average consumer's acceptable payback period is about 1.5 years.

At the same time, the state has not introduced a subsidy policy for private purchase of hybrid vehicles, which is also an important reason for the high selling price of hybrid vehicles. At present, many countries in the world can enjoy the reduction of vehicle purchase tax when consumers purchase new energy vehicles, and can enjoy the benefits of bridge tolls, personal income tax deductions, etc. during the future use of new energy vehicles.

At the same time, there is an important reason why hybrid vehicles are difficult to sell. That is to say, there are still taxes and fees on the purchase of hybrid vehicles. For example, if you purchase a hybrid car with a price of RMB 300,000, even if you enjoy government subsidies or discounts on car models, the relevant taxes, such as purchase tax, will still be calculated based on the original price of the car. "For example, the insurance and purchase tax of the Passat [review picture forum] was bought, but it was Santana [review picture forum]." explained Xiaohua Ding, deputy manager of the new energy automobile division of Shanghai International Automobile City (Group) Co., Ltd. "This also increases the resistance to the promotion of new energy vehicles."

In addition, the reporter learned that the use of nickel-metal hydride batteries in hybrid vehicles is expensive, but also made many people hesitate.

Compared with the ordinary version of Camry, the biggest increase in the cost of the Camry Hybrid is the battery. The cost of the original battery is 60,000 to 70,000 yuan.

“If the battery manufacturer’s promised battery warranty period is 5 years or 200,000 kilometers, consumers may need to change the battery. At least one battery must be replaced with another 50,000 yuan, which is also a surplus for consumers in the future. Cost concerns.” A Guangfeng 4S store sales manager in Shanghai told reporters.

In addition, in addition to the new energy vehicle's supporting facilities have not kept up, the hybrid vehicle itself as a used car how to trade and replacement, how to judge the value of the hybrid model, these factors are consumers of the use of hybrid models concerns .

Therefore, FAW Toyota Prius [Summary Picture Forum] began sales in 2005 and stopped production in 2009. Sales volume did not exceed 5,000; BYD's newly launched F3DM has only sold a few hundred vehicles; in 2009, Dongfeng Honda Civic was listed. The hybrid model was sold by dealers at a discount of 50%. “If you do not discount, it will be more troublesome to become a stock car, and it will also pressure our funds.” Dongfeng Honda, a dealer in Shanghai, told reporters.

However, with the arrival of the era of high oil prices and environmental issues, the hybrid car may still come in the spring, and as the automakers mature in hybrid technology, the price of hybrid vehicles is expected to further reduce.