Analysis of China's heavy truck sales in September 2010

Heavy truck sales hit a record high

According to data compiled by Gasgoo.com, the China Automobile Industry Association reported that from January to September 2010, sales of heavy trucks (including whole vehicles, non-integrated vehicles and semi-trailer tractors, and all types of trucks in the following categories) reached 788,000 units. Compared with the same period of last year, it increased by 74.76%, which was 23.91% higher than the 2009 annual sales (63.6 million units).

The sales volume of heavy trucks in China has increased from nearly 10,000 vehicles to nearly 50,000 vehicles, which took 10 years from 1990 to 1999. Since 2000, China's heavy truck market has entered a period of rapid development. In 2000, sales increased by 73.42% over 1999 to over 80,000 units. In 2001, it further increased by 77.37% to more than 140,000 units. In 2002 and 2003, it increased to approximately 250,000 units, and in 2004 it increased to approximately 350,000 units. Although it declined in 2005, it gradually increased from 2006 to 636,000 in 2009.

Historically, in general, the growth rate of sales of heavy trucks in China has fluctuate above and below the relatively stable GDP growth rate. When the growth rate of GDP is relatively high, the sales growth of heavy trucks is generally higher. From 2006 to 2009, the highest point of sales growth for heavy trucks occurred in 2007 - a year-on-year growth of 58.64%, and China's GDP grew by 13% in that year. In 2008 and 2009, China's GDP growth rate was around 9%. The sales growth of heavy trucks during the same period was below 20%. Many domestic and foreign authoritative organizations expect the growth rate of China's GDP in 2010 to be 9%-10%. According to preliminary estimates, China's GDP growth rate has reached 10.6% from January to September this year. This laid the foundation for the high growth of China's heavy truck sales this year.

The proportion of heavy trucks in trucks increased by 6%

From January to September this year, the total truck sales in China increased by 34.47% year-on-year to 2.916 million vehicles. Among them, the sales growth rate of light trucks, micro-cards, and China Cards were all lower than the overall level, which was 29.54%, 16.73%, and 5.79%, respectively. The sales growth of China Cards was the lowest. Heavy truck sales increased by 74.76% year-on-year, becoming the main force driving the growth of China's truck market.

Correspondingly, there was a significant change in the Chinese truck market structure from January to September: sales of heavy trucks accounted for 6.23% of the year-on-year increase, while China Card, light trucks, and micro cards each had a decline of around 2%.

Figure 2: China's truck sales structure changes

The proportion of light truck sales fell from 52.10% in January-September last year to 50.19%, still occupying half of the country. Heavy trucks rose from 20.80% to 27.03%.

Heavy truck sales structure: obvious growth of semitrailer tractors

The main force for heavy truck sales is non-integrated vehicles (ie, all levels of the chassis can be used to convert them into special vehicles). Its proportion in sales of heavy trucks is generally not less than 40%. From 2004 to 2009, it accounted for an average of 46% of China's heavy truck sales. From January to September this year, the proportion of non-integrated vehicles has dropped significantly – from 47.5 percent in the same period last year to 40.9%. The share of semi-trailer tractors and heavy-duty trucks is about 5% and 2% respectively.

In 2004 and 2005, the share of semitrailer tractors in heavy trucks was still less than 30%. In 2006-2009, its share was maintained at about 34%. From January to September this year, its proportion in sales of heavy trucks further increased to 35.0%.

The proportion of heavy trucks in total sales of heavy trucks reached 27.8% in 2005, and fell to 17.9% in 2006. From 2007, it continued to rise slowly, reaching 21.1% in 2009. From January to September this year, its share in heavy truck sales rose to 24.1%.