![<?echo $_SERVER['SERVER_NAME'];?>](/template/twentyseventeen/skin/images/header.jpg)
On May 7, Salt Lake potash (000,792.SZ) plummeted and became the only falling stock in Shanghai and Shenzhen. Guannong (600251.SH), which holds the concept of potash fertilizer, also fell 7.91%. The old potash fertilizers have changed. Become a bitter gourd on a vine today.
On the evening of the same day, Salt Lake Potash Corp. and Salt Lake Group (000578.SZ), which holds 30.6% of the shares, issued a price adjustment announcement for potassium chloride: the company’s sales department informed that due to the recent sluggish sales of potassium chloride products, the market price fell. Salt Lake potash research decided that the company's product price will be lowered by about 10% in recent years based on the average tax-inclusive sales price in 2008 (average sales price in 2008 was 3,670 yuan/ton).
The company also said that due to 2009 sales of salt lake potash plan more than 2 million tons, higher than the actual sales of 12.46 million tons in 2008, it is expected that the adjustment of the sales price will not have a major impact on its performance. In the later period, prices will be adjusted according to market conditions.
As we all know, in the past few years, the rise in potash price is a strong spiritual pillar that supports the strong stock price of potash fertilizer in Salt Lake. Whether it is the drop in potash price or the shrinking sales volume, it is a deadly threat to destroy its adherence to the stock price highland defense line.
Although the global potash monopoly manipulative forces have not been weakened in the global financial crisis, and imported potash prices are firm, the reason for the high price of domestic potash fertilizers is still valid. However, the constraints of the market supply and demand relationship are not eliminated by human manipulation. Today, the moment when the objective market rules work is finally coming.
The drastic fall in potash fertilizer in Salt Lake was particularly noticeable. Market participants pointed out that more than half of the spring plowing has been completed, and domestic potash fertilizer demand has weakened. The market price has slightly declined after rising by RMB1,000 in March. Currently, red potassium is 3,700 yuan/ton, and white potassium 3,800. Yuan / ton. The general dealers’ enthusiasm for purchasing is not high, mainly because the market outlook is uncertain. The operating principle of the distributors is to buy low and sell high and earn the difference. The current price of potash fertilizer is still at a relatively high level. In 2009, the import negotiations still have no results. The dealers did not have clear expectations about the future price trend and led to the purchase of light.
Is salt lake plummeting really a factor in the seasonal weakening of domestic demand?
Potash profits
The price of products is divorced from the skyrocketing relationship between supply and demand in the market. It is both a gift of God's whim and a good opportunity for profit-seeking companies to absorb excess profits once in a century.
In 2008, Salt Lake Potash realized a main income of 4.069 billion yuan, an increase of 30.9% year-on-year; total profit was 3 billion yuan, an increase of 47.3% year-on-year.
From the normal business logic point of view, the rapid growth of a company's performance is usually based on a significant increase in product sales. However, the advancement of potash fertilizer revenue in Salt Lake is an exceptional one.
The annual report shows that sales of salt lake potash decreased by 34.4% year-on-year in 2008, and the price of potassium chloride increased by 95% compared with the previous year. However, operating income increased by more than 30% year-on-year.
Although last year, the controlling shareholder of the Salt Lake Group imposed a royalty on mineral resources, the production cost increased by 40.9% year-on-year, but the substantial increase in product prices still increased its gross profit margin by 8 percentage points over 2007 and maintained a gross margin of 78%.
In the first quarter of this year, salt lake potash as the market is expected to usher in the gratifying situation of volume and price rise - to achieve sales of 1.77 billion yuan, an increase of 155%, net profit of 707 million yuan, an increase of 184%, due to sales of potassium chloride products The price rose.
According to Wei Tao, a researcher at Guotai Junan, Potassium chloride in salt lakes sold 500,000 tons of potassium chloride in the first quarter, and the domestic average price of potassium chloride was about 4,000 yuan per ton. Both the selling price and sales volume were significantly higher than the same period of last year.
Due to the increase in product prices and relatively stable production costs, the sales margin of potash potassium chloride products in Salt Lake rose to 81.6%.
The reason why many fund institutions are pursuing the salt lake potash fertilizer is to value the profitability of obtaining excess profits.
However, under the conditions of a market economy, any industry that seeks profits will be short-lived. Dazzling performance under the halo, Salt Lake potash has always been unable to get rid of the hidden price of product prices or market sales have shrunk dramatically.
On March 5th, the world’s largest potash trader, Belarusian Potash Corp (BPC), announced on its website that it would adjust Brazil’s potassium chloride CFR to US$750/ton in the next quarter.
As early as the Salt Lake Potash announced the 2008 annual report, Pacific Securities researcher Yao Xin pointed out that the international potash giant limit production insured prices, March transaction prices are mostly concentrated in the vicinity of 750 US dollars / ton, the domestic market of potassium chloride continues to slump, wait and see atmosphere is strong, The domestic and international potash fertilizer prices continue to rise under no small pressure. International potash fertilizer prices have fallen sharply and the Company's new production capacity has not been able to operate as scheduled. The restructuring of the future financial costs has greatly increased and has become the three major risks affecting salt lake potash stock prices.
Inferior hot price
In fact, in recent years, the surge in potash prices at home and abroad is not entirely based on market supply and demand, nor is it entirely driven by demand growth.
Last year, on the basis of continuous price increases in previous years, the BPC sales unions will suddenly increase the value of the offshore K price of potash sold in China by US$400/ton.
Even in this year, the total supply of potash in the world is still greater than the total demand. Regarding the soaring market rules, some private figures called for China to be more fully prepared to face the world's monopoly of resource oligopoly.
Despite rising demand for potash in emerging markets such as China, India, Vietnam, and Brazil in recent years, there is no shortage of potash fertilizer in the world.
According to the International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA), the total global potash supply in 2008 was 35,544 ktons K2O, and the total demand was 33,302 ktons K2O.
According to IFA's projections, from 2007 to 2012, the potash production capacity of all potash-producing countries will be expanded. In 2012, global potash production capacity will reach 50.3 million tons, which will increase by 22% on a 2007 basis. The global potash demand is only 36.6 million tons.
Although the international giant of potash fertilizers maintains the high price of potash fertilizer in a way that limits the production price, the law of market supply and demand is playing a role in its own unique way.
According to relevant reports, at the end of April, China's potash fertilizer market had basically no market price. In the first quarter of this year, the national amount of compound fertilizer decreased by 22% year-on-year, and the demand for potash fertilizer decreased by 30% accordingly.
The main reason is that direct application of diammonium phosphate instead of compound fertilizer occurred in the northeast and northwest regions this year, which has a great impact on the potash fertilizer market. In addition, the State encourages the return of straw, application of organic fertilizer, and promotion of soil testing and fertilization. The demand for potash will drop by a few percent from the previous year.
At the same time, 1.2 million tons/year of potassium sulphate project in Luobupo, Xinjiang, was completed and put into production. In 2009, the total potash fertilizer production capacity in China will increase to more than 4.5 million tons. The potash fertilizer resources will suddenly increase, and the pattern of supply and demand for potash fertilizer will inevitably be affected.
Leading to changes in the supply and demand of domestic potash fertilizers are also import factors. In recent years, there has been a surplus of potassium fertilizer imports every year, and the amount of carryover has been increasing. In 2009, the potassium fertilizer carried over to 2009 was as high as 6.8 million tons. This alone can basically satisfy the total demand for potash this year. If we add domestic annual production of more than 4 million tons and import volume in the first half of this year, even if one ton of potash fertilizer is not imported, it is not a problem to satisfy domestic potash fertilizer demand within two years.
In addition, North American farmers have reduced the amount of potash fertilizer by 40% this year. At present, potash stocks of potash fertilizer producers and wholesalers and retailers in North America are about 4.5 million to 5 million tons, and the short-term fundamentals are weak. The downward pressure on the potash fertilizer market in the international market is increasingly evident. When India negotiated with the potash giant, it had proposed to reduce the price of potash fertilizer to US$200/t.
In fact, the Belarusian potash company lowered Brazil's potassium chloride Cpa price in the next quarter in early March. The main pressure stems from the fact that the Indian government will reduce subsidies for farmers to use potash.
Over the past five years, India’s fertilizer subsidies have risen from 4 billion U.S. dollars to 25 billion U.S. dollars in 2008, accounting for 85% of the government’s fiscal deficit. The Indian government has become overwhelmed. In April this year, India will implement new subsidy standards. Will greatly weaken the international market demand for potash.
At present, under the dual pressure of weak domestic demand and relatively abundant stocks, the international potash giants will face tremendous pressure during the negotiations.
The high quality one can be used kill Caligus and sea lice, but no harm for Salmon and water, can used in fresh water and sea water. The low quality one are harm for Salmon, only used to kill fly, ants, cockroach and so on.
The application rate for this use is 0.1 to 0.2 mg/liter as a bath treatment.
The product should be keeped in well-ventilated place and free from exposure on sunshine & raining.
Animal Health,Azamethiphos For Slamon Health,Azamethiphos To Control Parasites,New Organophosphorus Pesticides Azamethiphos
NINGBO LUCKY CHEMICAL INDUSTRY CO. LTD , https://www.nbluckychem.com