On the dangers of the 2016 auto market: the key to breaking new energy vehicles

The Chinese auto market in 2016 is a year that makes practitioners cry. In 2015, China's auto sales increased by only 4.68% year-on-year, and 12 of the 23 mainstream passenger vehicle companies did not achieve target sales. Many experts expect that 2016 will be the most difficult year for China's new normal attack period, even if the country has introduced a purchase tax halving policy, it has not given the car companies a particularly strong confidence. At the beginning of this year, both China Automobile Industry Association predicted that China's auto market will grow by 6% in 2016, and that auto companies are also cautious in formulating new year plans.

Near the end of the year, the cumulative sales growth of the first 11 months of the car is 14.11%, more than double the 6.1% predicted by the China Automobile Association at the beginning of the year. Many car companies complete the year ahead of one month or several months. Sales targets, especially for self-owned brands. Looking forward to the coming year, in the face of the reduced purchase tax preferential policies, will the Chinese auto market still be as hot as this year?

At the same time, 2016 is an unusual year. The automobile industry has a lot of events, cross-border car-making, new energy fraud scandals, pickups, and the cancellation of used cars to restrict the use of unmanned vehicles. Sharing news and other news events and new things are endless.

It is particularly worth mentioning that China's new energy vehicle market is in the ascendant, accounting for only about 2% of the total sales volume of the car. When will new energy vehicles be able to keep pace with traditional cars? The government supports and unlimited market imagination space, creating a cross-border automobile industry. LeTV, Weilai, Harmony and other Internet companies are on the road to new energy vehicles. The unwilling home appliance giant Dong Mingzhu also recently joined hands with Wanda Wang Jianlin. Into the new energy vehicles, the author can not help but think of the late 1990s and early 21st century, Chunlan, Oaks, Midea and other home appliance companies to test the water, most of the cross-border in a short period of three or two have ended in failure. Then, can this wave of cross-border car driving out of the shadow of the failure of predecessors?

In the new economic era and the Internet era, the change of China's auto industry has not only appeared in the manufacturing process, but also in the circulation field. At present, the concept of sharing economy is very hot. How much impact does it have on the current sales model of 4S stores for individual users? How much space does the 279 million national motor vehicle possession leave for the future Chinese auto consumer market?

This series of questions and interesting things, on December 16, the relevant media invited traditional and new energy auto companies, industry experts to discuss the crisis and opportunities of the 2016 auto market, and jointly collide with whether the Chinese auto industry can rely on new energy vehicles. Achieve the overtaking of the corner, and jointly imagine that the technological revolution will bring joy to Chinese auto practitioners and Chinese auto consumers!

The purchase tax halving policy is about to stop

"Chicken blood therapy" or increase the speed of lumbosacral

Recently, the news of the continuation of the car purchase tax reduction has undoubtedly become the news of the screen. On the afternoon of December 15, the Ministry of Finance website released a new policy on small-displacement car purchase tax, which decided to purchase 7.5% of passenger cars with a displacement of 1.6 liters or less from January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2017. The tax rate is levied on the vehicle purchase tax. From January 1, 2018, the vehicle purchase tax will be levied at a statutory rate of 10%.

A year ago, in order to promote the development of new energy vehicles and small-displacement vehicles, the State Council issued a notice to halve the purchase of 1.6-liter and below-displacement passenger cars from October 1, 2015 to December 31, 2016. The levy on the vehicle purchase tax is reduced from the 10% tax rate to the 5% tax rate.

After the reduction, the purchase volume of small displacement cars increased rapidly. According to the statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to November 2016, sales of passenger cars of 1.6 liters and below were 15.628 million, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%, accounting for 72.1% of passenger car sales, an increase of 3.8 over the same period of the previous year. percentage point. In the last two months of this year, in order to catch up with the last train with a halving of the purchase tax, the Chinese auto market has seen a hot consumption scene.

At the time when the purchase tax is about to expire, many places have caught up with the last bus. The sales of small-displacement vehicles have increased significantly, and the overall market has risen. Hu Ming, the brand director of Changjiang Automobile, said that in the past few days, he passed a county-level vehicle management office and was stimulated by the new subsidy policy. The scene can be described by voices. In the process of communicating with some car buyers and dealers, he learned that because they know that the New Deal will pay more taxes next year, everyone is grabbing a 1.6L car. "I have calculated an account. If it is a 100,000 yuan car, it will cost more than 2,000 yuan. This will be very sensitive in the fourth and fifth-line markets, and will affect their willingness to buy.

In 2010, the Chinese government implemented a halving of the purchase tax for models under 1.6L. In the same year, domestic automobile sales increased by 32.37% year-on-year, and passenger vehicle sales increased by 33.17%. However, in 2011, after the end of the policy, car sales increased by only 2.45%, the fastest growth rate in 13 years. However, after two years of recuperation, coupled with the stimulation of the purchase tax halving policy, this year's auto market performance exceeded expectations.

In November of this year, the monthly production and sales of automobiles and the year-on-year growth rate exceeded 10%, and production and sales reached a record high. From January to November, China's automobile production and sales completed 25.027 million and 24.548 million, respectively, up 14.3% and 14.1% from the same period of the previous year, up from 12.5 and 10.8 percentage points in the same period of the previous year.

Although the small-displacement car purchase tax concessions narrowed, the purchase tax rose to 7.5%, but in the eyes of car owners, this will not have a big impact on the company. "The purchase tax reduction policy will have some impact on small-displacement vehicles, but at present, the impact will not be particularly large." Zhao Jun, the head of Beijing's modern public relations department, told reporters that the small-displacement car purchase tax rose to 7.5%, which is also an attractive means of promotion. From the overall, big trend, it will not have much impact.

Automotive analyst Zhong Shi believes that from the perspective of national taxation, the automotive industry is an important source of tax, and the appropriate increase is in line with expectations. The supply and sales of small-displacement models this year are still benefiting from the overall improvement of the auto market. “Actually, all the market segments in this year are selling very well. For example, cars like SUVs are more expensive than 1.6L, because the market environment is hot. The policy stimulus has a role, but the impact is slightly reduced. It won't be big. The car buyers in big cities actually pay more attention to the limit of purchase restrictions. The increase of 2.5% of the purchase tax is very small for the car buyers."

Chen Junbin, chief analyst of CITIC Securities' automotive industry, spoke with data. At present, the growth rate of small-displacement models of 1.6L and below has reached 23%, and sales accounted for 72% of total sales, reaching a new high in recent years. At the same time, the growth rate of the 1.6L and above models is almost stagnant, only 0.3% of the district. At this level, the increase in the auto market this year is almost dependent on the growth of small-displacement models. "In combination with the high growth rate of nearly 20% in the fourth quarter of this year," Chen Junbin believes that this increase has doubts about early consumption. He predicts that the growth of the automobile market will drop from 15% this year to around 7% next year.

In contrast, Yu Chen, deputy general manager of BAIC Changhe Automobile Sales Co., Ltd., said that in this year's purchase tax halving policy, the consumption climax was mainly concentrated on small-displacement models with lower added value, and most of the purchase targets were A price-sensitive low- and middle-income group. The policy retreat will only cause a certain degree of overdraft for this part of the consumer groups, and after the rest of the sector has been rehabilitated, the market situation will be expected to improve next year and play a pulling role in market growth.

Replenishment limit

The new energy vehicle market is the key to breaking the market

Sustained smog weather has become a difficult problem that has recently been plagued by many cities in China. Some environmental experts pointed out that the excessive discharge caused by the rapid development of passenger cars is one of the culprit causing haze weather. In order to effectively reduce passenger car emissions, the Ministry of Industry and other five ministries and commissions issued passenger vehicle fuel limit standards, will reduce the average fuel consumption of car companies in stages, by 2020, the fuel limit will be reduced to 5 liters / 100 kilometers.

In the face of fuel limit standards, car companies are not ideal in terms of implementation. The increasingly stringent average fuel consumption is now a hurdle for companies to take. Today, the average fuel consumption of the third-stage standard car companies now implemented is 6.7 liters per 100 kilometers. It is understood that the fourth stage fuel limit value standard will continue to use the current form of evaluation, that is, the vehicle fuel consumption limit plus the enterprise average fuel consumption target value for review.

In the face of the gradual decline in the fuel limit assessment red line, car companies began to work on the technical. Zhong Shi said that the fuel consumption limit can be said to be the sword that is currently hanging on all car companies. How to reduce fuel consumption will become the main research direction of the next stage of automobile enterprises. Companies with traditional energy technology reserves will focus on the development of small-displacement supercharged engines.

At the same time, Zhong Shi said that compared with the fuel consumption limit of commercial vehicles, it is expected that the implementation of the fuel consumption limit of passenger cars will be stricter than the former, and most car companies will not hope for policy compromise or release of water, so car companies are in this block. Also very important.

Zhao Jun also revealed that, as Mr. Zhong said, all the car companies are seeking solutions to the fuel consumption limit policy, and Beijing Hyundai is also actively responding. He said that this year's Hyundai has a number of hybrid models on the market, as a master of the engine powertrain, Hyundai 1.4T low-displacement engine has just won the top ten engine awards.

It is worth mentioning that this is already the third consecutive year of modernization. "In the world's engine powertrain selection, Beijing Hyundai can win awards in different power units for three consecutive years, and also reflects the competitiveness of modern energy conservation and environmental protection." Zhao Jun said in his speech.

However, neither the technical upgrade nor the adjustment of the industrial structure can be completed in the short term. But now there is a shortcut in front of auto companies, that is, new energy vehicles . According to Chen Junbin, most car companies are currently insisting on "two legs". In addition to improving the efficiency of traditional fuel vehicles, the company has reduced the average fuel consumption of car companies by increasing the development and production of new energy vehicles. The way to break the value.

“Previously, the opinion draft mentioned the opinion that the fuel consumption points and the new energy points are in both directions, and it is required to be tested in 2017 and officially implemented in 2018. All the OEMs are actively deploying, because if the points are not up to the standard, Will face a lot of pressure." Chen Junbin said.

In this regard, Hu Ming believes that the fuel consumption limit is a very favorable thing for the entire automotive industry. The introduction of restrictive policies has an internal driving force and is itself a demand for industrial upgrading. It is not only China's policy but also a global trend. Under such a background, it is inevitable that all car companies will promote this aspect.

Specific to the Yangtze River, Hu Ming said that because of its focus on the production of pure electric vehicles, there is no such problem.

Supply chain system open to achieve cross-border car

All types of enterprises need to respect the laws of industry

At present, the “new car” of new energy vehicles has suddenly started. In the car camp, there are many traditional car companies, such as BAIC New Energy . At the same time, capital tycoons have purchased traditional car enterprises and converted to new energy vehicles. For example, Hong Kong Wulong Electric Vehicle (Group) Co., Ltd. has invested in the restructuring of Hangzhou Yangtze River. Bus Co., Ltd., which is now the Yangtze River car; then there are parts or design companies that are in contact with traditional car companies, such as the Great Wall Huaguan; Internet companies or people with Internet backgrounds are also involved in capital cultivation, such as LeTV And Wei Lai, etc.; then there are the people of the traditional car enterprises to start a new stove, tying the base camp to force new energy vehicles; Finally, Gree chairman Dong Mingzhu just announced the hands of Wanda Wang Jianlin to build a car, which is the home appliance industry.

Then, for the six types of car manufacturers and the momentum of making cars, what do the forum guests think? Which types of companies are more likely to break through?

In the view of Zhong Shi, the emerging automobile market does exist. If there is a solid and reliable product launch, it will greatly accelerate the emergence and formation of market segments. However, combined with the actual situation at this stage. Zhong Shi believes that whether it is a traditional car enterprise, a start-up enterprise or an Internet company to build a car, the premise must be to respect the objective law of car construction. "First, a car has formed a model, which is a framework that cannot be broken. Secondly, the new car There is no doubt that the experience can only be sold when it is better than a traditional car or when it approaches a traditional car."

In view of the differences in the concept and path of various companies, Zhong Shi believes that their advantages will be significantly different. "If the media people transform and build cars, there will be benefits in future marketing. They are more familiar with the interaction with consumers. Although the capital crocodile is rich in funds, it will often form money and people will not be able to do it. After all, organizational integration. Need a master to deal with; and the supply chain-derived car companies, because of the experience of the whole car, so the process control, cost control is the expert, this is helpful for the quality and quantity of the car."

"Some people think that Apple has money but shrinks. Tesla has technology but still loses money, so Chinese companies can't do it. But I think this round of science and technology competition is backed by a huge market in China. Not only is the classification rich, but the consumption structure is still very different, which leaves many opportunities for the Chinese enterprises. I believe that as long as enterprises find their own positioning, the prospect of China's electric vehicles will be prosperous." Finally, Zhong Shi stressed that the pattern of new energy vehicles will be further clarified next year, and will become the first year of new energy products in 2018.

In this regard, Chen Junbin of CITIC Securities made an interpretation of the investment properties. He told the guests that if they use the mobile phone as a ratio, from the functional machine to the smart machine, there will naturally be a mobile phone company to follow up, as well as a mobile phone, such as Apple. A sudden rise.

From the perspective of investment, if you must invest in six types of enterprises, the investors will look at the new entrants and evaluate them one by one. For example, some enterprise advantages are in the supply chain, some are in the understanding of users, and some are rich in funds. After comparison, they may be invested in a basket, so that if there is a winner, it will be successful. "It is not required that the success rate of all investments should reach 100%, which is impossible." Chen Junbin said.

When talking about why people will make cars in recent years, Chen Junbin believes that one of the important reasons is that electric vehicles will make the automotive supply chain system more open. “The core of the traditional car is the engine and the gearbox. Looking at the world, we can't find an independent and absolutely leading passenger car engine company. The technology is in control of each company. However, for electric cars, you can find the best. The motor, the best battery. From a different point of view, not who must be subverted, but the new energy vehicle gives people the opportunity to build a car."

Of course, "opportunity" does not mean "will". In the view of Zhao Jun, the representative of traditional car companies, cars are not simply pieces of parts. This can only be called a production process, but it is not the core of automobile companies. R&D, production, sales, and after-sales, the establishment of these ecosystems needs to be accumulated and precipitated, rather than being established in a year or two.

As a typical representative of the capital tycoon to acquire traditional car companies to convert new energy vehicles, Changjiang Automobile clearly has more say. Changjiang Auto, a name that was barely known before. Nowadays, it is going to the public's view. The tipping point is the “birth-given” license for new energy vehicles .

On May 20, 2016, Changjiang Automobile Co., Ltd. from Hangzhou officially received a notice from the National Development and Reform Commission, proclaiming the qualification for the production of pure electric new energy passenger vehicles. In other words, Changjiang Automobile became the second enterprise to obtain the qualification of pure electric passenger vehicle production after Beiqi New Energy obtained the qualification of pure electric passenger vehicle production on March 23 this year. More valuablely, because Beiqi New Energy Automobile, as a subsidiary of BAIC Group, has been using Beiqi Holding's automobile production qualification to produce and sell pure electric vehicles before obtaining production qualifications. Therefore, Changjiang Automobile has actually become the first domestic manufacturer to obtain the qualification for pure electric vehicle production. It is also the first company that has never produced a passenger car, and has passed the approval of pure electric passenger car access conditions, thus surpassing the emerging car companies such as LeTV and the prospective car.

It is understood that the investment body of Hangzhou Changjiang Passenger Vehicle Co., Ltd. is Changjiang Automobile Group. In 2013, Hong Kong Wulong Electric Vehicle (Group) Co., Ltd. was renamed Hangzhou Changjiang Automobile Co., Ltd. by restructuring Hangzhou Changjiang Bus Co., Ltd. As a major shareholder, Wulong Group entered the field of automotive power batteries 11 years ago and started the electric vehicle business six years ago. It is mainly engaged in the investment and promotion of new energy electric vehicles, covering the entire industry of electric vehicles. chain.

Hu Ming said that the company has divided the development of new energy vehicles into four stages. The first one is that the sales of new energy vehicles account for less than 5%. We call it budding. The most important thing at this stage is to follow the development of automobiles. The laws and scientific experience. Learn from traditional car companies and integrate talents from traditional industries into the new energy industry.

“When the sales volume reaches 10%, it enters the second stage. At this time, although the new energy industry has its own scale, it is still a primary school student; the third stage is 20%, when it has new core technology. Energy companies will have the opportunity to win the market; the fourth stage is 40%, which is the stage where the traditional car and the new energy car go hand in hand, and the new energy car has become an important part of the car market. “Hu Ming explained this.

New car companies need to catch up with the window

From the perspective of the new energy automobile industry, despite the emergence of “scams” ​​and other smears to the industry, there are some inferior products with poor quality in the market, but new energy vehicles are already in the core of batteries, motors, and electronic control systems. The technology has made great progress, and new energy infrastructure such as charging and dedicated parking spaces have gradually improved. Comparing the national medium- and long-term automobile industry strategic development goals, 2016-2020 will be an important strategic opportunity for the large-scale promotion of new energy vehicles. The development of the industry in the following aspects is particularly worthy of attention.

From the two main bottlenecks in the development of the new energy automobile industry, the battery and charging system are two topics that cannot be avoided. The development of automotive power batteries depends more on the enterprise itself, and the charging infrastructure is more likely to be completed in the context of national co-ordination, multi-industry co-ordination and even active participation of the people. The two are distinct and closely related.

When talking about the development of automotive power batteries, Chen Junbin believes that there is still a certain gap between domestic battery levels and foreign consistency and reliability, but this gap is difficult to quantify. In fact, judging from the current characteristics of several automotive power battery manufacturers in China, both the battery quality and the production scale have reached a considerable level. "From the perspective of the pattern, for example, if you look at the battery factory capacity of a single product, in fact, domestic BYD is already the world's largest battery factory in the capacity of a single battery factory."

In the field of charging networks, although charging infrastructure is another major bottleneck project for the development of new energy vehicles, the importance and benefits of national policies for charging networks have made this segment of the industry a benchmark for market and investment. From the implementation of various local governments, the current progress in key cities such as Beijing and Shanghai is the fastest. In addition, the "triple play" of the charging network, the Internet of Vehicles and the Internet, which is currently under discussion, will definitely be a big development direction of the charging infrastructure.

In the view of Zhong Shi, the next step should be to realize the construction of the intelligent charging system for electric vehicle clusters as soon as possible, so that not only can the control of mobile phone applications be realized, but also group group control, flexible charging, peaking and valley filling can be realized, thereby reducing Impact on the grid.

After studying the power battery and infrastructure, we must return to the new energy vehicle product itself and market acceptance to see the problem. Because all the batteries are good, the motor is good, the electronic control system is also good, and finally reflected in the vehicle report is related to the complete vehicle products and profitability.

In this regard, Hu Ming said that Changjiang Automobile has been in the investment layout stage for the past six years. As for profitability, there is an unwritten rule in traditional passenger car companies that 100,000 units of sales are the “life and death line” of a company. Is it a standard for new energy vehicles? It is hard to say. The industry itself now accounts for only 2%, almost the stage of net investment. But what is certain is that the current profitability of new energy is mainly in commercial vehicles.

Hu Ming admits that until now, all car manufacturers have pushed hybrid power, not pure electric technology, but because hybrid power can not abandon the engine and gearbox technology. If you really push the pure electricity technology, it is equivalent to abandoning the huge investment and technology patents that have survived for many years. This kind of capital zeroing practice will not be done by all manufacturers.

In Hu Ming's view, "This is our opportunity. What new energy vehicles are going to do now is to seize the empty window period of these years, otherwise it will be difficult to establish a foothold once the opportunity is missed." It is understood that the modern electric vehicle factory built by Changjiang Automobile is built according to the German Industry 4.0 standard. The annual production capacity of the new factory is 20,000 pure electric bus and commercial bus and 80,000 passenger cars.

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