"Cheats" after the storm, the power battery industry is not losing heat

With the popularity of the new energy vehicle market, the related supporting industrial chain enterprises have also ushered in the spring. After the investment boom of 2015, upstream and downstream companies continued to increase their investment in this area in 2016, especially the expansion of power batteries.

Industry analysts said that this year, affected by the policy, the new energy battery and other industrial chains have also been affected, but in the long run, the industry is still full of confidence in the new energy industry, so this year continued the investment boom last year.

In 2016, BYD, CITIC Guoan Mengli, Yiwei Lithium and other new energy companies have expanded their production activities to cope with the rising demand, and the return on investment of power batteries is also relatively bright.

At the same time, this year's new energy policy is also mainly focused on subsidies and access to battery production. The refinement of the rules also puts forward many requirements for the power battery industry. Under this trend, non-conforming products that follow the trend of investment will face more brutal market competition.

Investment heat is not reduced

Since the beginning of this year, with the “cheat” survey and subsidy suspension, the sales of new energy vehicles have been greatly affected. In September, the China Automobile Association has adjusted its annual sales forecast to 700,000 units from the previous 700,000 units. The latest data shows that the cumulative sales in the first 10 months was 337,000.

An insider of a battery company told reporters that "this year, due to policy influence, battery manufacturers have not shipped as much as expected, but the investment boom is still going on."

According to incomplete statistics, BYD Qinghai lithium battery project and power battery material production and recycling project started at the end of October; in June, Mengguli and Tianjin signed a battery project investment agreement; Yiwei lithium-energy battery capacity expanded rapidly, the second phase of planning Construction of 2.5GWh ternary and 0.7GWh lithium iron phosphate is expected to be put into production in the first quarter of 2017.

According to the statistics released by the Zero2IPO Research Center in the third quarter of 2016, China’s private equity market data showed that the total investment in the automotive industry grew rapidly in the third quarter, ranking third in the industry, reaching 10.742 billion yuan. Among them, new energy vehicles, auto parts manufacturing and automobile internet platforms are hot investment fields in the automotive industry.

Wang Zhikuo, project manager of the marketing department of Mengguli, also told reporters that “the whole industry is still optimistic about the trend of new energy in the future, so they are increasing their investment and preparing for future demand. Since July, although the policy is not yet clear, but the policy is not yet clear, Many bus companies have resumed orders, and Mengguli has entered full capacity."

At the same time, the investment income of power batteries is also considerable. Taking the listed company Yiwei Lithium Energy as an example, the third quarterly report shows that the company achieved operating income of 627 million yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of 86.21%, an increase of 43.87% compared with the second quarter; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 69.8 million yuan. , an increase of 118.28% year-on-year and a year-on-year increase of 36.01%.

Entering the industry phase-out period

Like new energy vehicles, the development of new energy supply chains has only been developed in a few short years, mainly relying on policy and capital-driven development. After the large-scale entry of capital, the industry has opened up the mechanism of survival of the fittest after a period of development.

According to the research report released by China Investment Consulting Co., Ltd., the analysis of the status quo of the upstream power battery market in the new energy automobile industry chain shows that in 2015, more than 20 complete vehicles, power batteries and other related enterprises plan to put into production of power batteries and upstream raw materials. Then it is billions of yuan, and more than ten billion yuan. The investment boom in the new energy industry chain has reached a fairly high level in 2015.

There are also many problems behind this investment boom. For example, after many large-scale construction and enclosures, many charging pile enterprises began to have the situation that the charging piles are abandoned and the utilization rate is low this year. The second policy adjustment will face more restrictions on the rules.

In terms of policy adjustments, Wang Zhikuo said, "The battery industry has been greatly affected by the policy, and it has taken the lead. The new subsidy policy has not yet been determined. There are many sayings among enterprises, and everyone is still waiting to see."

As far as the refinement of the rules is concerned, in March of this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially issued the "Regulations on the Standards of Automotive Power Battery Industry". The new energy vehicle promotion catalogue is bundled with the "Automobile Power Battery Industry Specification Conditions", that is, the battery new energy vehicle products that do not enter the catalogue are used. Subsidies are not available, although it has subsequently been shown that it is not a simple “hook”, but there are still many related restrictions.

According to the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Analysis and Tips" released by China Automotive Research Institute in July, in terms of power batteries, domestic new energy vehicle companies have about 200 power cell production companies and more than 300 system companies. In June of this year, there were only 57 companies entering the catalog in four batches.

Wang Binggang, former leader of the National New Energy Vehicle Technology Innovation Engineering Expert Group, said in an interview with reporters: "At present, there are not too few battery companies in China, but too many." It is conceivable that with the further refinement and adjustment of the rules in the future, Power battery manufacturers will face further shuffling.

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