Although current oil prices hover at high levels, major oil-producing countries in the world have indicated that they will not increase production. This runs counter to traditional market logic and this situation may continue.
According to the latest data from the US Department of Energy, the world’s major oil-producing countries’ oil exports fell by 2.5% in 2007, and oil prices rose by 57% over the same period. It is expected that the situation in 2008 will be similar.
The reasons for the decline in net oil exports of oil-exporting countries are as follows: First, the high profits brought by high oil prices have increased the demand for crude oil in Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Middle East, which has reduced the oil exports of these countries; at the same time, the aging oil fields and weak investment have made Mexico Oil exports from Norway, Russia, and Russia have fallen sharply. In addition, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut production earlier in 2007 and did not take measures to increase production before the fall of 2007.
According to the US Department of Energy, net exports of the world's top 15 oil-producing countries fell by nearly 1 million barrels to 38.7 million barrels per day in 2007. If Angola and Libya and other under-developed countries did not increase their oil production, the decline may be even higher. These countries’ net oil exports accounted for 45% of their total oil production.
In addition to China’s growth in energy demand, rising energy demand in the Middle East may pose even greater challenges. According to the Energy Information Administration, oil output of the six largest oil exporting countries in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iran, Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar, fell by 544,000 barrels per day in 2007. Domestic oil in these countries over the same period Demand rose by 318,000 barrels per day, resulting in a drop in net exports of 862,000 barrels per day.
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