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Recently, the domestic aniline market price has been continuously refreshed, from 11,600 yuan (t price, the same below) in April to the current 15,500 yuan, an increase of 34%, and continues to rise after a record high, and there appears to be tight supply. situation. This is unreasonable for the domestic aniline industry whose production capacity is far greater than the demand. Comprehensive analysis, the main reason is still pushing up the raw materials, limited start-up companies and strong demand for the troika pull.
The first is the rise in the price of raw materials and the continuous increase in the price of aniline. In the first quarter of this year, domestic aniline prices have been oscillating and oscillating around 1,1,500 yuan, and have fallen below the threshold of 10,000 yuan in the low quarter; in the second quarter, the major raw materials for chemical industries have risen and are even higher. The prices of benzene, the most basic raw material for aniline, have recently risen to 10,700 yuan and nearly 4,000 yuan, respectively, compared with 22% and 160% respectively. Due to factors such as the suspension of production and production restriction of several major domestic enterprises, domestic concentrated nitric acid production has been reduced by nearly 40%, and there has been a phenomenon that there is no value for goods. Therefore, aniline enterprises increased the ex-factory price at the same time as the cost increased, forming a linkage mechanism of pure benzene, nitric acid to aniline.
Followed by the limited start-up of aniline companies, the formation of the amount of reduced prices. The balance of supply and demand is a benign development of the market law in any industry. Once it is broken, it will inevitably cause great fluctuations in product prices. According to the analysis, there are several reasons for the limited start-up of domestic aniline enterprises: First, the aniline units originally planned to start this year have not been implemented. For example, Shandong Haihua has delayed driving, and Jiangsu Anbang has not yet driven, Huahong Chemical has not been normal; Second, the average number of aniline manufacturers that drove normally, the average operating rate is less than 60%, and the uneven inter-regional work, resulting in the formation of regional spreads, resulting in an increase in the market price; Third, the two major manufacturers in South and South areas that is South of the company And the parking of Tianji Group caused a shortage of more than 10,000 tons of raw materials in the single month market, resulting in an overall reduction in volume.
Finally, demand is pulling, and the market is bullish. Since the beginning of this year, downstream markets such as auxiliaries, sulfanilic acid, pesticides, organic intermediates, and MDI have grown steadily, and the operating rate has increased. In addition, the aniline plant of Nanjing Jintian Chemical Co., Ltd. purchased aniline due to suspension of production, and these factors all caused a large increase in market demand, resulting in insufficient supply of aniline. Driven by the strong demand, aniline prices are bullish all the way, and the upward trend is still expected to continue.
In 2008, the domestic aniline market will enter the integration period. With the release of production capacity of some companies, Jilin Cornell is expected to drive in July, Shandong Haihua’s recent production, Huahong Chemical’s start-up gradually normal, and Jiangsu Anbang’s drive will make the region The balance between the two faces the test. In response to the trend of aniline market, experts in the industry suggested that: strengthen alliances among enterprises, standardize regional markets, implement regional distribution agency system among peers, allow product distribution among peers, balance regional supply, and stabilize regional market prices; accelerate downstream support The construction speed of the device will enhance the self-digestion ability of the enterprise and lay a good foundation for the future development of the aniline industry. The industry association will be set up, the restraint mechanism will be established, and the interests of the industry will be jointly observed and safeguarded; the product export intensity will continue to expand and the international market will be opened up.
The first is the rise in the price of raw materials and the continuous increase in the price of aniline. In the first quarter of this year, domestic aniline prices have been oscillating and oscillating around 1,1,500 yuan, and have fallen below the threshold of 10,000 yuan in the low quarter; in the second quarter, the major raw materials for chemical industries have risen and are even higher. The prices of benzene, the most basic raw material for aniline, have recently risen to 10,700 yuan and nearly 4,000 yuan, respectively, compared with 22% and 160% respectively. Due to factors such as the suspension of production and production restriction of several major domestic enterprises, domestic concentrated nitric acid production has been reduced by nearly 40%, and there has been a phenomenon that there is no value for goods. Therefore, aniline enterprises increased the ex-factory price at the same time as the cost increased, forming a linkage mechanism of pure benzene, nitric acid to aniline.
Followed by the limited start-up of aniline companies, the formation of the amount of reduced prices. The balance of supply and demand is a benign development of the market law in any industry. Once it is broken, it will inevitably cause great fluctuations in product prices. According to the analysis, there are several reasons for the limited start-up of domestic aniline enterprises: First, the aniline units originally planned to start this year have not been implemented. For example, Shandong Haihua has delayed driving, and Jiangsu Anbang has not yet driven, Huahong Chemical has not been normal; Second, the average number of aniline manufacturers that drove normally, the average operating rate is less than 60%, and the uneven inter-regional work, resulting in the formation of regional spreads, resulting in an increase in the market price; Third, the two major manufacturers in South and South areas that is South of the company And the parking of Tianji Group caused a shortage of more than 10,000 tons of raw materials in the single month market, resulting in an overall reduction in volume.
Finally, demand is pulling, and the market is bullish. Since the beginning of this year, downstream markets such as auxiliaries, sulfanilic acid, pesticides, organic intermediates, and MDI have grown steadily, and the operating rate has increased. In addition, the aniline plant of Nanjing Jintian Chemical Co., Ltd. purchased aniline due to suspension of production, and these factors all caused a large increase in market demand, resulting in insufficient supply of aniline. Driven by the strong demand, aniline prices are bullish all the way, and the upward trend is still expected to continue.
In 2008, the domestic aniline market will enter the integration period. With the release of production capacity of some companies, Jilin Cornell is expected to drive in July, Shandong Haihua’s recent production, Huahong Chemical’s start-up gradually normal, and Jiangsu Anbang’s drive will make the region The balance between the two faces the test. In response to the trend of aniline market, experts in the industry suggested that: strengthen alliances among enterprises, standardize regional markets, implement regional distribution agency system among peers, allow product distribution among peers, balance regional supply, and stabilize regional market prices; accelerate downstream support The construction speed of the device will enhance the self-digestion ability of the enterprise and lay a good foundation for the future development of the aniline industry. The industry association will be set up, the restraint mechanism will be established, and the interests of the industry will be jointly observed and safeguarded; the product export intensity will continue to expand and the international market will be opened up.
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