The annual sales of domestically-made cars are expected to be around 2.3 million, and the overall contradiction between production and sales has caused overall contradictions compared to 1,365,700 units in the same period of last year. This year, domestic sales of cars have reached 1.63 million, which can be said to be “growthâ€. But why is the auto market performance so frustrating? The supply and demand in the auto market apparently did not produce "anticipated" bumps due to the large number of manufacturers' manufacturing plans. The performance of the supply and demand relationship in the market is faithful to the balance of demand. This is also the driving force behind the development of the market. High expectations have been placed on the recovery of auto manufacturers and dealers." "Golden September" still didn't appear. According to statistics from the National Passenger Vehicle Information Association, the number of passenger vehicles sold in the country in September was 207,224. Although there was an increase of 11.63% over the previous month, there appeared to be signs of recovery, but there was a year-on-year decline for the first time in the same period. 2.19%. In this regard, industry experts predict that the auto market before the end of this year is still not optimistic, and it is expected that this shock will continue until the end of 2005. According to analysis, the most important reason that caused passenger cars to remain in the trough in September was that the new round of price cuts in September gave rise to high interest rates that led consumers to continue holding their currencies. In this regard, Rao Da, Secretary-General of the Passenger Car Information Association, believes that the market will remain a weak recovery in the coming months, and this weak recovery determines that the market before the end of this year is not optimistic, he predicted that the market in October than in September Will still fall sharply, the auto market will still dominate the valley bottom. Statistics on production and sales triggering structural adjustment of the National Passenger Car Information Association show that in the first nine months of this year, cumulative sales of domestically produced cars totaled 1.63 million, which was less than 47% of the 3.5 million production and sales plans of the manufacturers. Most of the past, it is considered almost impossible to complete 53% of sales in the remaining 1/4 of the year. According to the forecast of the National Association of Passenger Vehicles, the sales growth of domestic cars this year is estimated to be around 20%, which means that the annual sales volume will be around 2.3-2.4 million units. Obviously, there will be at least 1 million or even 1.2 million capacity will be released this year. However, when manufacturers realized this problem, it was already July this year. It is understood that after the first half of the year has passed, almost 80% of the manufacturers have lowered their annual production and sales plans. This caused manufacturers to feel more or less damaged. Therefore, most manufacturers acknowledged that production and sales could not be completed, and few publicly announced new production and sales plans. Obviously, how much manufacturers hope to have a miracle! In fact, it is even more painful for manufacturers to stop production and sales and damage their faces. On the one hand, the decline in the production and sales of the downturn in the auto market, the other side of the car prices continue to decline, while the construction of raw materials are constantly rising prices, the triple pressure, the manufacturers are most concerned about the problem is still how much this year's profits can save? The reporter learned from the State-Owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission that in the first half of this year, profit growth also reached 3% in 13 key state-owned automobile companies such as SAIC, FAW, and Dongfeng, and their profit for January-July dropped by 10%. Xu Heyi, chairman of Beijing Hyundai Motor Co., said in an interview with reporters that the auto market this year is actually very normal. Not this year's low growth, but last year was too high. Excluding the abnormal factors of last year, this year's auto market is still very beautiful. He believes that at present, many people do not have this awareness, and competition is still behind. This year marks the start of China's auto competition. According to his analysis, the production capacity of many companies will rise next year, at least a net increase of 1 million vehicles, and the following year's production capacity will be greater, so competition has only just begun. Xu Heyi believes that this road must go. The foundation of China's auto industry is still very fragile. Our past market is not a perfect market, and everyone's competition is not on a single platform. In the future, we must do bigger and stronger and form several big camps. Joint, reorganization, mergers and acquisitions, and even some companies went bankrupt. He believes that it should jump out of the industry to see the market. From now on, the Chinese auto market will repeat the development path of home appliances 10 years ago and metallurgy and chemical industry five years ago. In comparison, it will be found that the current situation in the automotive industry is actually normal. Industry insiders believe that the automobile market slump and price war are not a bad thing for the just-started Chinese auto industry. Although the price war will always be ridiculed by economic circles as "the lowest level of market competition", the integration of China's auto industry must start from the "lowest level." Just imagine how almost all vehicle manufacturers can make money. How can we talk about industry mergers and reorganizations and industrial integration? The overcapacity, followed by the price war is a prelude to industrial adjustment. New car sales are not sustainable Due to the downturn in the auto market this year, cumulative sales of domestic cars increased by only 17% in the first nine months of this year, and the number of new cars listed this year is not less than ten. Therefore, manufacturers cannot expand the overall market demand. Can only increase their market share by encroaching on others' market share. Therefore, the fierce competition in the domestic car market this year is undoubtedly questionable, and the up and down of each car model is exactly the embodiment of the strength of each model. Although the Accord’s price increase this year is over, it is not easy to increase sales of more than 10,000 vehicles in this year’s fierce competition. The Passat slipped six from the third place, but it was difficult to understand. However, statistics show that the mid-to-high class sedan with the same severe decline as the Passat has Bluebird and Sonata. The monthly sales of bluebirds that have been sold for more than 5,000 vehicles for a month have been below 3,000 for this year. The cumulative sales volume for the month decreased by 42.8% year-on-year to 21,085 units; the sales volume of Sonata, which last year also reached 56,000 vehicles, was 29,504 units in the first nine months of this year, a year-on-year drop of 20%. According to the analysis of Passat, Blue Jays, and Sonata, the hot sales last year were due to the sudden blowout of the market. Almost all cars were sought after, and new cars like the Accord, Regal, and Mazda6 had to line up or increase their prices to buy a car. Some consumers are more inclined to queue up to buy mature models Passat, Bluebird and so on. However, when the auto market was in the doldrums, Accord, Regal, and other tight-knit cars now required not only queuing but also large-scale promotions, consumers began to shift their attention. Of particular note is that in the same period last year, respectively, ranked eighth, nine, ten, Polaris, Alto and Sail were out of the top ten this year, replacing their new faces are Excelle, Elantra and Fit. It can be seen that people are still more sought after than new models. This is still a problem that Jetta and Poussin, who are still in the top runner-up, need to pay attention. At present, in the case of adverse price reductions for the whole vehicle, Shanghai Volkswagen has pinned its hopes on lowering the price of the Passat accessories, which will depend on the proportion of the after-sales service in people's car purchase decisions. Outgoers gradually became aware of the three models of Dongfeng Yueda Kia’s Pratt, Hafei’s Baili and Guihang’s Skylark, and other models or companies with annual sales of even less than a thousand vehicles. Their large year-on-year decline indicates that the domestic automobile industry shuffled. It is inevitable. The market is an invisible hand and it is also the first big player to promote the reshuffle of the Chinese auto market. With the rapid growth of the Chinese auto market in 2002 and 2003, a new wave of investment in the Chinese auto industry has emerged. The enthusiasm of various investment entities for investing in the auto industry has skyrocketed - there is a large scale for auto manufacturers. There are also a large number of newly-entered private capital and state-owned capital in non-automotive industries. There have been a number of “outsiders†such as Oaks (Air Conditioning), Bird (mobile phone), Wuliangye (wine), etc. entering or announcing their entry into the auto industry. However, with the intensification of market supply and demand conflicts, the market will ruthlessly expel enterprises with no potential from the competition arena. It is understood that there are still 120 vehicle manufacturers in China, and there is almost no decrease compared with 10 years ago. However, a considerable number of companies have little or even zero output. The reason why these enterprises did not go bankrupt in the past is that the past automobile industry policies did not have a clear exit mechanism; second, there was no clear definition of bankruptcy in law; and third, under the protection of policies, these enterprises still had the value of shell resources. However, in the new situation, these enterprises may withdraw from the automobile industry in bankruptcy, thus changing the strange phenomenon that Chinese auto companies will only survive. Because the new automobile industry policy has clearly put forward the company's exit policy; Second, the issuance of the "Bankruptcy Law" provides a legal basis for bankruptcy; Third, because the new automobile industry policy does not allow the sale of automobile production qualifications and our country's auto With the end of the high-profit era of the industry, the value of the “shell†resources of automakers has dropped significantly. The industry believes that if during the period of this year's downturn or more optimistically called "adjustment", domestic auto companies can think clearly about their whereabouts, improve their internal skills and complete a shuffle, then the entire Chinese automobile industry. In terms of development, it is a good idea. The success or failure is determined not only in the quality of the Passat and Blue Jays, but because of the Accord and Regal cancellation charges, it attracted the attention of some consumers. The once-popular POLO hatchback was not only affected by the background of the downturn in the auto market, but also possible. There is a certain relationship with the squeezing of the brother POLO sedan. Statistics show that in the first nine months of this year, sales of sedan PO-LO reached 16,317 units, which was more than four times higher than the same period of last year. It is understood that since the POLO sedan fell to the same price as the hatchback in November last year, many consumers who originally favored hatchbacks started to select sedan cars with multiple trunks and the same price, which caused sales of hatchback cars to begin to suffer influences. The most important reason for Vios's decline in sales compared to the same period last year was that its price was too high. 1.5L displacement, the body can only be classified as the Vios of the economical car. Its listing price extends from 135,000 yuan to 195,000 yuan, and actually sells the most between the 1-340,000 yuan. The models, although the price is the lowest of the two models, but compared with similar models, even with the Toyota trademark, there is a famous descent, the price is close to the price of mid-size cars, especially the price is only 120,000, the body is slightly larger The emergence of 1.6L Excelle and Elantra is a big blow to Vios. Therefore, even if Vios insisted for a long time after the announcement in July and August of this year that the price of 5000 yuan, some dealers even pulled the price to 110,000 yuan, but over the same period Excelle and Elantra's price is only 11 million. . What does Vios to compete with? Last year was the listing of Excelle and Elantra at the end of the year. Consumers did not have a choice. This year's choices were more cost-effective for consumers. It can be seen that in the fierce auto market, sometimes it is not just the quality of the car itself that determines the outcome of the auto market. The timely response of market strategies should be very important. Examples of good car sales are already more than one case in China. For example SPARK. The turmoil in the market structure will continue until the end of next year. It can be seen that although the North and South Volkswagen still rank respectively in the championship and the third runner-up, the other three companies in the top five are growing at a relatively large rate, and only the North and South Volkswagen are growing. A certain degree of decline has occurred. Judging from the absolute number, Shanghai Volkswagen's boss status will not be shaken for the time being, but there is no doubt that the German Volkswagen’s market share in China has been further reduced. It is not surprising that Shanghai Volkswagen and Shanghai Volkswagen launched the price reductions in mid-June. Shanghai Volkswagen has recently launched spare parts prices, while FAW-Volkswagen has taken the lead in breaking the price of luxury cars. Therefore, no matter how the German public expressed that they would rather lose market share and not lose profits, the facts tell them that they will not change. The Analysis of the Passenger Car Information Association believes that the domestic car market is already in a clear state of reshuffle. The reason is that the cumulative sales volume and profit growth have only accounted for a small number of companies, while the cumulative sales and profits have fallen in the majority of companies. The few companies that have seen cumulative sales and profits have grown rapidly, and the market share of vulnerable companies has fallen significantly. The turmoil in the Chinese car market may continue until the end of 2005. Therefore, large corporations are not necessarily large in the future, and today's small companies are not necessarily small in the future. When this market is turbulent, the first thing that determines the role is new products and new technologies, and the second is product costs. Businesses that cannot take advantage of either side will not be optimistic about the future.
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