The future performance of lithium battery companies has been seriously overestimated

Since the beginning of this year, the stock prices of many lithium battery listed companies on the domestic capital market have risen sharply. Under the background of the overall downturn in the domestic stock market, the price rises of listed companies in the lithium battery sector are large, and the long-term rising trend has aroused the attention of the majority of investors.

Li Shengmao, a senior researcher at China Investment Consulting Co., Ltd., pointed out that lithium battery products have not been recently developed. They have long been used as portable power supplies for mobile devices such as mobile phones and notebook computers. In the past, companies engaged in lithium battery business were also in the minority. Therefore, enterprises in this field have been extremely hot in the capital market this year. This is inseparable from the government's intensive introduction of a series of supporting policies for the new energy auto industry since the beginning of the year.

Li Shengmao believes that as the power battery is the most important part of new energy vehicles, and the future of vehicle-mounted power batteries will mostly use power lithium batteries, so many investors believe that lithium battery companies can fully share the market brought about by the rapid development of new energy automotive industry in the future opportunity. Under this expectation, the future development prospects of lithium battery companies affixed with the concept of new energy vehicles are infinitely exaggerated, resulting in the company’s stock price has already largely deviated from the fundamentals.

The “2010-2015 China Electric Vehicle Industry Investment Analysis and Prospect Forecast Report” issued recently by China Investment Advisors pointed out that lithium battery companies, especially those that are mainly engaged in automotive lithium batteries, want to change the concept of new energy vehicles. The actual performance will take a long time. On the one hand, most of the companies engaged in the research and development of power lithium batteries in China currently do not have the relevant core technologies. There are only a few companies that can mass produce lithium-ion batteries for automobiles. In addition, business operations generally follow the principle of sales and production, while domestic The earliest start-up time for the power lithium battery market is still uncertain after 2015.

At present, many companies have foreseen the development prospects of the new energy automotive industry, and believe that the power lithium battery industry is the best entry point for the new energy automotive industry. For this reason, many companies that had not previously been associated with the lithium battery business expanded horizontally into the field of power lithium batteries and tried to lay them out in advance to wait for the start of the power lithium battery market. The R&D investment of power lithium batteries is relatively large and requires constant technological renewal, so this has a very large test for the capital strength of related companies. Some enterprises that do not have accumulated technology and whose funds are not very abundant are likely to be eliminated before the industrialization of new energy vehicles.

Li Shengmao finally stressed that in the future there will be some uncertainty in the selection of vehicle-mounted power batteries for new energy vehicles. Although the current industry has basically reached a consensus, lithium batteries will be the preferred energy storage device for new energy vehicles for a long time to come, but according to different cathode materials for lithium batteries, it can be subdivided into lithium manganate and cobalt acid. Lithium, lithium iron phosphate and other types of lithium batteries, which kind of lithium battery will become the mainstream of the future automotive power battery, which investors have to ponder a problem.