Sustained growth in production prices, slowing trend of increase—Analysis of the national oil and chemical industry situation in July

According to the analysis report of the Information Department of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, the import situation of the oil and chemical industries in the country remained good in July under the dual role of demand-pulling and cost promotion.
Production and sales momentum is still strong Since this year, China's economic operation has continued to develop in the direction of macroeconomic regulation and control. Demand for petrochemical products has continued to increase. The oil and chemical industry in the country has maintained a relatively strong production and sales momentum. At the same time, under the support of high prices such as petroleum, coal, electricity, and transportation, the price level of the entire industry has always fluctuated at high levels, but due to the excessively rapid price growth and the weakening of downstream affordability to high price levels, prices of many products tend to slow down. Market conditions fluctuate greatly.
In July, there were 58 kinds of 64 kinds of key tracking products, which had a year-on-year increase of 58 kinds, accounting for 90.6%; there were 5 kinds of them, accounting for 7.9%. Among the 149 kinds of products that were tracked, there were 111 kinds of prices that increased year-on-year, accounting for 74.5%, and there were 22 kinds of drops, accounting for 15.3%. Almost half of the ring prices rose and fell, and prices of the 12 products were flat.
Production continued to grow rapidly Oil and gas production grew steadily. In July, the country’s crude oil and natural gas production continued to grow at a rapid rate. Crude oil production was 15.456 million tons, an increase of 4.2% year-on-year; natural gas production was 3.95 billion cubic meters, an increase of 19.2% year-on-year. After a two-month slowdown in the growth rate of refined oil production, it began to rebound in July. The processing volume of crude oil this month was 24.624 million tons, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year, and a month-on-month increase of 1.6 percentage points; refined oil production was 14.75 million tons, an increase of 7.1% year-on-year and a rebound of 5.9 percentage points. Among them, 4.523 million tons of gasoline was produced, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year; diesel was 9.314 million tons, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year, and the ratio of diesel to diesel was 2.1.
Agrochemical production runs well. In July, the production of sulphur and phosphorus in the two mines continued to increase, reaching 1.010 million tons and 2.916 million tons, respectively, an increase of 21.1% and 35.3% respectively. Fertilizer production continued to grow at a rapid rate. In July, the output (refine, the same below) was 4.276 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%. Among them, 3.183 million tons of nitrogen fertilizers and 1.909 million tons of high-concentration nitrogen fertilizers were the best in a single month's history; 882,000 tons of phosphate fertilizers and 691,000 tons of ammonium phosphate were produced. The production of pesticides slowed down. In July, the output of crude drugs was 74,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. Among them, 34,000 tons of pesticides, an increase of 1.2%; herbicide 17,000 tons, an increase of 9.3%.
Inorganic and organic chemical raw materials grew rapidly. In July, sulphuric acid, concentrated nitric acid, and hydrochloric acid produced 3.715 million tons, 125,000 tons, and 530 thousand tons, respectively, an increase of 19.0%, 27.6%, and 15.7% year-on-year respectively. “Two Alkali” production output continued to increase due to the production of many new production capacity. Caustic soda production reached 1.016 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.7%; and soda ash 1.09 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%. Production of ethylene and pure benzene also increased significantly. Ethylene production was 672,000 tons, an increase of 46.3% year-on-year; pure benzene production was 44,000 tons, an increase of 45.5% year-on-year.
The output of synthetic materials has increased substantially. In July, the output of synthetic resin was 1.762 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.8%. Among them, PVC production was 501,000 tons, an increase of 23.9% year-on-year; polyethylene and polypropylene production were 474,000 tons and 431,000 tons, respectively, an increase of 35.9% and 17.8 respectively year-on-year. %. The output of synthetic rubber reached 138,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, the largest increase this year. The growth of synthetic fiber production accelerated, with a production of 1.307 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.2%.
High prices tend to slow down In July, domestic oil and chemical market conditions changed significantly, and price fluctuations intensified.
Crude oil and processed products have reached new highs. In July, the ex-factory prices of domestic gasoline and diesel reached 4,400 yuan (tons, the same below) and a record high of 3,870 yuan. At the same time, the average retail mid-price of central cities nationwide also set a new historical record, and gasoline No. 90 reached 4,953 yuan. No. 0 diesel is 4372 yuan.
Fertilizer prices fluctuate at high levels. In July, the prices of 13 chemical fertilizer products tracked in addition to the slight increase in the prices of urea, ammonium phosphate, and 45% sulfur-based compound fertilizers, and the price of other 10 chemical fertilizer products fell to varying degrees. The average price of urea was 2020 yuan, which was the highest level in history, up by 1.0% from the previous period and 18.8% from the same period of last year. The price of ammonium bicarbonate was 550 yuan, down by 5.2% from the previous month and 14.6% from the same period last year. Diammonium phosphate 2650 Yuan, up 1.9% month-on-month, up 26.2% year-on-year; domestic potassium chloride 2050 yuan, down 0.5% month-on-month, up 50.7% year-on-year; imported potassium chloride offshore price 2090 yuan, down 0 .5%, up 68.5% year-on-year.
Basic chemical raw materials market fluctuates greatly. In July, the prices of 88 basic chemical raw materials that were tracked were almost half of that in the previous month, but there were only 17 kinds of prices that fell compared with the same period of last year, and the price level remained high. The average price of liquid caustic soda (30%) was 560 yuan, a decrease of 4.4% from the previous period and an increase of 21.2% from the same period of last year; and caustic soda (≥96%) was 2,450 yuan, a decrease of 2.0% from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 4.3. %; calcium carbide 2500 yuan, up 2.0% qoq; soda ash (heavy ash) average price of about 1,600 yuan, up 3.2%; the average price of sulfur is 1,300 yuan, up 3.2%; yellow phosphorus is 18,000 yuan , MoM fell by 6.3%; the average price of propylene was 9,200 yuan, up 9.5% month on month and up 47.9% year-on-year; the average price of methanol was 2,740 yuan, down 2.1% month on month and 1.8% year-on-year.
Synthetic resin oscillates high. In July, the price of polystyrene in the five major general-purpose synthetic resins in China fell from the previous month, and the price of PVC was unchanged from the previous month, while others all recovered in varying degrees. Among them, high-density polyethylene was 11,250 yuan, up by 2.3% month-on-month; low-density polyethylene was 11,650 yuan, up by 4.0% from the previous month; polypropylene was 11,800 yuan, up by 7.3%, and ABS resin was 14,800 yuan, up by 2 rings. .1%. The prices of 15 resin products tracked by major companies, except PVC, PS, and PVA, dropped by 18.8%, 16.2%, and 15.1% year-on-year, respectively, while prices of other general-purpose resins rose sharply. .
Rubber market prices stabilized. In July, the average price of natural rubber (No. 1) was 13,560 yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 0.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%. Natural rubber (No. 3) was 13,800 yuan, a decrease of 0.7% from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 3.0%. 1%. The price of synthetic rubber rebounded in most cases, with SBR up by 14,500 yuan, up by 2.1% month-on-month and up by 5.8% year-on-year; and Shunde Rubber by 15,400 yuan, up 4.1% month-on-month and up 22.2% year-on-year. .

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