Since mid-to-late May, stimulated by multiple positives, the domestic phosphate market has swept its slump for half a year, and has gone through a wave of soaring prices. The industrial price of sodium tripolyphosphate has reached 8,000 yuan (t price, the same below). Food grade up to 8500 yuan. At present, the domestic and foreign market transactions are unusually hot, and the spot demand for many varieties even falls short of demand. What is in the ointment is that due to the bottleneck of yellow phosphorus transportation, many manufacturers are extremely difficult to mobilize yellow phosphorus, and production is limited.
Pushing tariffs to curb phosphorus exports On May 19, the Ministry of Finance introduced a new deal on the export of phosphorus products, announcing that a special tariff of 100% will be imposed between May 20 and the end of the year, plus the already imposed 20% tax rate to bring its tax rate to The 120% higher level. This action is quite effective in suppressing the export of yellow phosphorus, because the price of yellow phosphorus is over 20,000 yuan, and the tax amount of tons of products is several thousand yuan, which will inevitably increase the operating costs of the related production companies, resulting in general reluctant sellers of yellow phosphorus processing enterprises. Unless there is an absolute advantage in resources such as electricity and phosphate rock, it will not dare to export in large quantities.
The shrinking of export volume has increased the supply of yellow phosphorus in the country, leading to a rapid decline in its market price, which has dropped from nearly 30,000 yuan before and after the Spring Festival to the current 21,500 yuan. As a result, downstream phosphate products have benefited greatly, and manufacturing costs have been greatly reduced. For example, the cost of manufacturing phosphoric acid dropped from 8500 yuan to 6170 yuan, while the sales price was generally above 8,000 yuan, and the unit product was profitable.
The recovery of yellow phosphorus supply from electricity surged since May. In Yunnan, Guizhou, and Hubei, the main yellow phosphorus producing regions in China, the power supply recovery status has improved markedly. In particular, some hydropower companies have entered the flood season, driving the yellow phosphorus companies in full swing. Created conditions. At the same time, from October last year to the first quarter of this year, the huge profit-making effect of yellow phosphorus has attracted yellow phosphorus companies to drive and put into operation, and the operating rate of yellow phosphorus devices has increased from less than 30% to more than 80%.
This changed the relationship between supply and demand of yellow phosphorus, resulting in a sharp drop in its price, and in the short term changed the operating conditions of the downstream phosphate industry, so that the boom has clearly risen. It is estimated that in the cost structure of phosphate products, the cost of yellow phosphorus materials is an absolute proportion, and the profit and loss of products is almost entirely determined by the price of yellow phosphorus. In accordance with the law of capital profit rate for equal amounts of capital to obtain the same amount of profits, the profitability of yellow phosphorus unit products in the first quarter of this year will be more than 10,000 yuan, and the irrational phenomenon of large-scale loss of downstream products is also bound to be reversed.
Insufficient Inventory Depletion Urgently Needed to Supplement The phosphate industry is plagued by high phosphate prices. Industry companies have been shut down for nearly half a year, and the market has faced a no-good situation. This situation has also spread to foreign markets. The dramatic reduction in China’s phosphate export volume will inevitably result in tight supply in the international market. In addition, foreign markets have already recognized the gradual increase in the prices of phosphate products with resources. In the short term, the demand has been growing rapidly. As a result, new breakthroughs have been made in the price increase of related companies. These enterprises are now driving their horses and using favorable opportunities to step up production. .
At the same time, the Wenchuan earthquake that occurred a month ago has hit the local phosphate processing companies in Jinhe, Qingping Phosphorus Mine and Mianyang. As a major processing province, Sichuan has a relatively complete variety of phosphates, and the production capacities of major products such as sodium tripolyphosphate, sodium pyrophosphate and sodium hexametaphosphate are relatively large. The earthquake disaster has prevented many enterprises from restoring production and reducing such production. The supply of products to the market, to a certain extent, boosted the tension between supply and demand.
In short, unless the yellow phosphorus transport bottleneck is completely broken, the abundant supply of yellow phosphorus can satisfy the full-load production of the downstream industries, and the phosphate production capacity will be released to a large extent, leading to a drop in the price of traction; otherwise, the price will remain strong in the near future, not Excludes creating new highs.
Pushing tariffs to curb phosphorus exports On May 19, the Ministry of Finance introduced a new deal on the export of phosphorus products, announcing that a special tariff of 100% will be imposed between May 20 and the end of the year, plus the already imposed 20% tax rate to bring its tax rate to The 120% higher level. This action is quite effective in suppressing the export of yellow phosphorus, because the price of yellow phosphorus is over 20,000 yuan, and the tax amount of tons of products is several thousand yuan, which will inevitably increase the operating costs of the related production companies, resulting in general reluctant sellers of yellow phosphorus processing enterprises. Unless there is an absolute advantage in resources such as electricity and phosphate rock, it will not dare to export in large quantities.
The shrinking of export volume has increased the supply of yellow phosphorus in the country, leading to a rapid decline in its market price, which has dropped from nearly 30,000 yuan before and after the Spring Festival to the current 21,500 yuan. As a result, downstream phosphate products have benefited greatly, and manufacturing costs have been greatly reduced. For example, the cost of manufacturing phosphoric acid dropped from 8500 yuan to 6170 yuan, while the sales price was generally above 8,000 yuan, and the unit product was profitable.
The recovery of yellow phosphorus supply from electricity surged since May. In Yunnan, Guizhou, and Hubei, the main yellow phosphorus producing regions in China, the power supply recovery status has improved markedly. In particular, some hydropower companies have entered the flood season, driving the yellow phosphorus companies in full swing. Created conditions. At the same time, from October last year to the first quarter of this year, the huge profit-making effect of yellow phosphorus has attracted yellow phosphorus companies to drive and put into operation, and the operating rate of yellow phosphorus devices has increased from less than 30% to more than 80%.
This changed the relationship between supply and demand of yellow phosphorus, resulting in a sharp drop in its price, and in the short term changed the operating conditions of the downstream phosphate industry, so that the boom has clearly risen. It is estimated that in the cost structure of phosphate products, the cost of yellow phosphorus materials is an absolute proportion, and the profit and loss of products is almost entirely determined by the price of yellow phosphorus. In accordance with the law of capital profit rate for equal amounts of capital to obtain the same amount of profits, the profitability of yellow phosphorus unit products in the first quarter of this year will be more than 10,000 yuan, and the irrational phenomenon of large-scale loss of downstream products is also bound to be reversed.
Insufficient Inventory Depletion Urgently Needed to Supplement The phosphate industry is plagued by high phosphate prices. Industry companies have been shut down for nearly half a year, and the market has faced a no-good situation. This situation has also spread to foreign markets. The dramatic reduction in China’s phosphate export volume will inevitably result in tight supply in the international market. In addition, foreign markets have already recognized the gradual increase in the prices of phosphate products with resources. In the short term, the demand has been growing rapidly. As a result, new breakthroughs have been made in the price increase of related companies. These enterprises are now driving their horses and using favorable opportunities to step up production. .
At the same time, the Wenchuan earthquake that occurred a month ago has hit the local phosphate processing companies in Jinhe, Qingping Phosphorus Mine and Mianyang. As a major processing province, Sichuan has a relatively complete variety of phosphates, and the production capacities of major products such as sodium tripolyphosphate, sodium pyrophosphate and sodium hexametaphosphate are relatively large. The earthquake disaster has prevented many enterprises from restoring production and reducing such production. The supply of products to the market, to a certain extent, boosted the tension between supply and demand.
In short, unless the yellow phosphorus transport bottleneck is completely broken, the abundant supply of yellow phosphorus can satisfy the full-load production of the downstream industries, and the phosphate production capacity will be released to a large extent, leading to a drop in the price of traction; otherwise, the price will remain strong in the near future, not Excludes creating new highs.
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