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Academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Professor of Tsinghua University, Ouyang Minggao
This is also a hot spot about hydrogen fuel cells.
First of all, we must be certain that fuel cell engines have made significant technological advances. I went to Toyota after the Spring Festival this year, and Toyota is very open to us. Because now our Tsinghua Toyota Research Institute is about to be established, we will carry out all-round cooperation in this regard.
My judgment is that fuel cell engine technology will mature in three to five years. Although there are gaps in the country, they have made rapid progress. Now they are attracting a lot of resources. Everyone has come to China, so the prospects are promising. It should develop in parallel with the international advanced level in five years.
On-board hydrogen storage is a bit more problematic.
At present, the on-board hydrogen storage is mainly a 70 MPa hydrogen bottle, which is the mainstream technology for hydrogen storage in cars. What is its hydrogen storage volume energy density? About 0.8 kWh per liter. I just said that the same is true for lithium-ion batteries. The volumetric specific energy of lithium-ion single-cell batteries can also be close to 800 watt-hours per liter. That is to say, the volumetric energy density of hydrogen storage and storage is roughly equivalent.
Of course, what I just said is a single battery. If it is a battery system, it will be almost half. But because the hydrogen storage energy is about twice as much as the pure electric storage energy. Why? Because the efficiency of the fuel cell is about 50%, there is no such problem for pure electric power. The battery power goes directly to the motor, so the electricity storage and hydrogen storage are still quite the same.
This has a problem, the total volume of the fuel cell car will be greater than pure electric. Because the fuel cell power system not only has a hydrogen storage bottle, but also a fuel cell engine and an auxiliary battery. So the size of the fuel cell car is especially for compact cars, which is a challenge. Of course, the SUV may not be a problem.
Another possibility for heavy trucks is the use of liquid hydrogen, but it is difficult to use in cars, because cars are often placed in underground garages, and liquid hydrogen will evaporate.
In addition, regarding the cost, the current 70 MPa IV bottle with one kilogram of hydrogen is about 1,000 US dollars. Calculate a kilowatt hour hydrogen energy of about 200 yuan. If you use the effective energy of 400 yuan per kWh, this is pure with a decade ago. At the beginning of the development of electric vehicles, the battery ratio is about 1/8, which is about 1/3 compared with the current battery, which has a cost advantage.
Therefore, the fuel-powered vehicle has a relatively long driving mileage, and if it is short, the cost is definitely higher than that of pure electric. At least 500 kilometers above the car, the truck must be at least 200 kilometers to balance, so it is suitable for long-distance heavy-duty large vehicles, such as commercial vehicles.
China's fuel cell vehicles are mainly commercial vehicles, and now have 3,500 vehicles, ranking first in the world.
The challenge we face now is that hydrogen technology lags behind fuel cell technology. Hydrogen energy technologies such as alkaline electrolysis cell electrolysis water hydrogen production, compression refrigeration liquefaction, etc. are techniques that were invented long ago, with high cost and low efficiency. This can be done in the chemical industry, and it is not ideal in the automotive field. The car is a cost-sensitive product.
Now how to solve the cost problem? It can only be used for waste. For example, wind power can not be used, and hydropower that cannot be used can be used to produce hydrogen, or chemical by-product hydrogen, which is economically feasible.
But in the long run, we have to develop a new generation of hydrogen production technology. Now there are some breakthroughs in the scientific level, but it is estimated that a new generation of high-efficiency low-cost hydrogen production, hydrogen transport, and hydrogen storage technologies will gradually mature. The middle decade should be a transition.
Why is hydrogen so hot? I will give you an explanation. Because the chemical industry, steel industry, energy industry, coal industry, petrochemical industry are all related to hydrogen. Iron and steel coking has hydrogen, chemical chlor-alkali production by-product hydrogen, coal gasification to produce hydrogen, petroleum refining with hydrogen and so on.
These industries are currently some industries in which the supply-side structural reforms of the country are going to reduce production capacity. These industries are probably more than three times larger than the automotive industry, that is, about 30 trillion yuan in output value, and only about 15 trillion in the chemical and petrochemical industries. output value. Such a large industry should seek a way out for the transformation and upgrading of green development. Hydrogen is a natural choice.
In short, the hydrogen energy industry chain is very long, there are many stakeholders, and the number of people employed is very good. Of course, it is very good for the industry.
Looking forward to the future development of fuel cell vehicles, I still insist on the existing judgment, about 5,000-10,000 vehicles in 2020, and estimated to be 50,000-100,000 vehicles in 2025. The goal for 2030 is to reach 1 million vehicles. Note that this is not the current production.
This is the result of the 2016 roadmap for energy-saving and new-energy vehicles. In 2019, a new round of technical roadmap revision is underway. I am currently judging that this number is basically the same. In order for hydrogen to develop, we can't just locate in the automotive industry. We must locate the entire energy and chemical industry, so that hydrogen can play a role in more fields.
Our new energy vehicles involve three major fields. The core of hybrid power is still the heat engine. In essence, it is the field of thermal engineering (referred to as thermal engineering), which mainly drives the transformation and upgrading of the traditional automobile industry.
The theme of this conference is that smart energy vehicles with more emphasis on intelligent pure electric power systems are essentially in the field of power and electronic engineering (referred to as electricians), which brings more disruptive changes to the transportation and power industries.
Hydrogen fuel cells are essentially in the field of energy and chemical industry (referred to as chemical industry). It is an organic integration of the transformation and upgrading of the traditional energy and chemical industry and the emerging high-tech industry in the fuel cell.
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