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There are indications that the US chemical industry has bottomed out. The current US chemical industry has entered a recovery phase, but the growth rate in the next few years will be more moderate. Looking ahead to 2010, the American Chemical Industry Council (ACC) stated this. According to the results of the Canadian Chemical Manufacturers Association (CCPA), sales of chemical manufacturers in the country are expected to increase by 2% from last year in 2010, but chemical sales will remain at the low point of 2009. Market analysts said that the increase in investment and the reduction in inventories are two signs that the chemical industry has begun to recover. Now they have at least seen signs of investment recovery. Overall, the North American chemical industry is slowly embarking on the road to recovery.
Investment Recovery Signal Reveals In July last year, ExxonMobil announced that it will cooperate with biotechnology company Synthetic Genomics to invest more than 600 million U.S. dollars in the development of biofuels based on algae. In August last year, DuPont announced an investment of US$120 million to increase its Tedlar polyvinylidene fluoride (PVF) film production capacity by more than 50% to enhance the supply of key materials for its PV modules. The project is scheduled to start production in mid-2010. In November last year, Dow Chemical teamed up with China Shenhua Group to launch the Shenhua Doosan Yulin circular economy coal comprehensive utilization project. After the project is completed, it will produce about 3.5 million tons of fine chemicals and synthetic resins each year. The project is the world's largest single coal chemical project, and the first phase of the project will invest 10 billion US dollars.
The expected increase in income is a response to the increase in American confidence in the development of enterprises and an important indicator that its economy has bottomed out. At the end of last year, the US Supply Management Association's questionnaire survey of 13 large US chemical companies showed that in 2010, the income of chemical companies will increase by 6.7%, and the prices of raw materials and labor will also rise, which is a 10.7% drop from the cash flow in 2009. In stark contrast.
The American Chemical Industry Business Advisor Tim Hanley of Deloitte, the world-renowned consultancy, is cautiously optimistic about the outlook and said: “For the US chemical industry in 2010, what we expect is a gradual reset rather than a sudden rebound. Some consumption. The strong performance of the product market, such as soaps and detergents and personal care, but the auto, housing, and construction markets will remain weak.†Cautious optimism is also a more general judgment of the head of the US chemical industry in 2010.
Companies participating in the US Supply Management Association’s survey believe that demand for 13 downstream consumer segments, such as transportation equipment, paper products, electrical and electronic equipment, apparel, food, beverages, and metal products, will improve, which will be seen for chemicals and their derivatives. It is undoubtedly a good news. However, they believe that the wood processing, furniture manufacturing and basic metal processing industries will remain difficult in 2010. In particular, the construction and automotive industries have not yet recovered their vitality, which in turn makes it a bit worried about the prospects of the plastic and rubber industries in 2010. They also mentioned that credit supply, interest rates, taxes, and higher energy costs may negatively affect the chemical industry in the new year.
US confidence is stronger than the Canadian ACC's forecast is almost the same as that of companies. According to the ACC, by the end of 2009, light vehicle sales will have dropped to 10.2 million units, the worst year since the 1980s. In 2009, only 564,000 new homes were built in the United States, a 73% drop from the peak of 2.07 million sets in 2005. It will take a long process for the US automobile and housing markets to return to normal levels.
The ACC expects that despite the relative slowdown in U.S. GDP growth over the next two years, it is still expected to exceed the growth rate of most of their developed countries. In 2009, US chemical production (excluding pharmaceuticals) decreased by 9.4%, including drugs, which decreased by 6.2% year-on-year, and in 2010 it will increase by 3.4%, and the growth rate in 2011 will be 4%. The ACC also said that the demand for chemicals in the United States is still very weak, and the recovery in the future will be more moderate. Although the growth in exports stimulated by global demand and the weakening of the US dollar will partially offset the weakness of the US domestic market, the growth rate of US chemical production in 2010 will not be able to completely compensate for the decline during the economic crisis. Demand for pharmaceuticals and consumer goods in the United States is expected to exceed the previous peak levels in 2011 and 2012 respectively, but it will take longer for demand in other areas to return to the previous peak level.
Unlike the US, which is slightly optimistic, Canada’s prospects for the chemical industry in 2010 are not very promising. The CCPA anticipates that Canada’s domestic chemicals sales revenue will increase by 2.2% in 2010; export sales revenue will drop by 4% to CAD 12.25 billion (USD 11.8 billion). The CCPA pointed out that the declining natural gas production in western Canada will add more pressure to chemical producers. In addition, Canada’s depressed economic outlook has forced customers in Canada’s most chemical products to shift their production bases to China and other Asian countries. The addition of a large amount of basic chemical production capacity in the Middle East has also brought competitive pressure on Canadian chemical industry. Due to the strong performance of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar, the weak global auto and paper industry, the overall downturn in Canadian manufacturing industries, and the increased competition from China, India and the Middle East, the operating profit of Canadian basic chemical producers will decline by 36%.
Investment Recovery Signal Reveals In July last year, ExxonMobil announced that it will cooperate with biotechnology company Synthetic Genomics to invest more than 600 million U.S. dollars in the development of biofuels based on algae. In August last year, DuPont announced an investment of US$120 million to increase its Tedlar polyvinylidene fluoride (PVF) film production capacity by more than 50% to enhance the supply of key materials for its PV modules. The project is scheduled to start production in mid-2010. In November last year, Dow Chemical teamed up with China Shenhua Group to launch the Shenhua Doosan Yulin circular economy coal comprehensive utilization project. After the project is completed, it will produce about 3.5 million tons of fine chemicals and synthetic resins each year. The project is the world's largest single coal chemical project, and the first phase of the project will invest 10 billion US dollars.
The expected increase in income is a response to the increase in American confidence in the development of enterprises and an important indicator that its economy has bottomed out. At the end of last year, the US Supply Management Association's questionnaire survey of 13 large US chemical companies showed that in 2010, the income of chemical companies will increase by 6.7%, and the prices of raw materials and labor will also rise, which is a 10.7% drop from the cash flow in 2009. In stark contrast.
The American Chemical Industry Business Advisor Tim Hanley of Deloitte, the world-renowned consultancy, is cautiously optimistic about the outlook and said: “For the US chemical industry in 2010, what we expect is a gradual reset rather than a sudden rebound. Some consumption. The strong performance of the product market, such as soaps and detergents and personal care, but the auto, housing, and construction markets will remain weak.†Cautious optimism is also a more general judgment of the head of the US chemical industry in 2010.
Companies participating in the US Supply Management Association’s survey believe that demand for 13 downstream consumer segments, such as transportation equipment, paper products, electrical and electronic equipment, apparel, food, beverages, and metal products, will improve, which will be seen for chemicals and their derivatives. It is undoubtedly a good news. However, they believe that the wood processing, furniture manufacturing and basic metal processing industries will remain difficult in 2010. In particular, the construction and automotive industries have not yet recovered their vitality, which in turn makes it a bit worried about the prospects of the plastic and rubber industries in 2010. They also mentioned that credit supply, interest rates, taxes, and higher energy costs may negatively affect the chemical industry in the new year.
US confidence is stronger than the Canadian ACC's forecast is almost the same as that of companies. According to the ACC, by the end of 2009, light vehicle sales will have dropped to 10.2 million units, the worst year since the 1980s. In 2009, only 564,000 new homes were built in the United States, a 73% drop from the peak of 2.07 million sets in 2005. It will take a long process for the US automobile and housing markets to return to normal levels.
The ACC expects that despite the relative slowdown in U.S. GDP growth over the next two years, it is still expected to exceed the growth rate of most of their developed countries. In 2009, US chemical production (excluding pharmaceuticals) decreased by 9.4%, including drugs, which decreased by 6.2% year-on-year, and in 2010 it will increase by 3.4%, and the growth rate in 2011 will be 4%. The ACC also said that the demand for chemicals in the United States is still very weak, and the recovery in the future will be more moderate. Although the growth in exports stimulated by global demand and the weakening of the US dollar will partially offset the weakness of the US domestic market, the growth rate of US chemical production in 2010 will not be able to completely compensate for the decline during the economic crisis. Demand for pharmaceuticals and consumer goods in the United States is expected to exceed the previous peak levels in 2011 and 2012 respectively, but it will take longer for demand in other areas to return to the previous peak level.
Unlike the US, which is slightly optimistic, Canada’s prospects for the chemical industry in 2010 are not very promising. The CCPA anticipates that Canada’s domestic chemicals sales revenue will increase by 2.2% in 2010; export sales revenue will drop by 4% to CAD 12.25 billion (USD 11.8 billion). The CCPA pointed out that the declining natural gas production in western Canada will add more pressure to chemical producers. In addition, Canada’s depressed economic outlook has forced customers in Canada’s most chemical products to shift their production bases to China and other Asian countries. The addition of a large amount of basic chemical production capacity in the Middle East has also brought competitive pressure on Canadian chemical industry. Due to the strong performance of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar, the weak global auto and paper industry, the overall downturn in Canadian manufacturing industries, and the increased competition from China, India and the Middle East, the operating profit of Canadian basic chemical producers will decline by 36%.
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