New energy vehicles focus on the private market

Recently, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the National Development and Reform Commission organized experts to review and evaluate the new energy vehicle applications and applications announced by various localities, confirming that 28 cities or regions such as Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Guangzhou are the first Batch of new energy vehicles to promote the use of cities. The official release of this list means that the development of new energy vehicles has begun a formal transition from "demonstration applications" to "promotion and application."

On December 13, Dongfeng Nissan officially delivered the first batch of 120 Qichen Morrowind pure electric vehicles to Huadu District, Guangzhou City, which will enter the taxi and car rental markets respectively. It is understood that by 2015, the total number of new energy vehicles in Guangzhou will reach 10,000 units.

Similar to Guangzhou, cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have also announced the next phase of new energy vehicle promotion goals, of which the private market will become a major breakthrough.

At present, due to the different positions of industry stakeholders in the development of infrastructure, the development of electric vehicle charging facilities is slow, and consumers still have no convenience in use. Last year, sales of 12,791 new energy vehicles were mostly concentrated in official vehicles and taxis.

In this regard, many industry experts have expressed the same view. Under the current limited resources, it is necessary to establish a new business model to find a breakthrough point. The time-share lease of electric vehicles began to rise.

Charge-change mode "Staleless"

On September 16, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other four ministries jointly issued the "Notice on Continuing the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"), marking a new orientation for the new round of new energy vehicle promotion plans.

From the perspective of the technical route, the country’s main direction for the development of pure electric vehicles has not been shaken, and the policy has been optimized to increase the promotion efforts. This further strengthened the company's confidence in the development of pure electric vehicle business. Dongfeng Nissan, Beijing Automotive, Changan Group, BYD and other car companies have accelerated the pace of research and development of electric vehicle products.

Compared with the clearing of the technology route, the development path for the infrastructure of electric vehicles has been shaken. At present, the industry still has big differences in the charging and changing modes of electric vehicles. Most automobile manufacturers such as Nissan, Volkswagen, BYD, and BMW are all pushing forward the charging mode, and the power sector represented by the National Grid is more inclined to change the mode.

An electric vehicle technical expert explained to the reporter of “Daily Economic News” that the advantages of the charging mode are lower construction costs and the difficulty of uniform charging interface is suitable for promotion, but the charging time for slow charging mode is long, generally 4~5. Hours. The fast charge mode is DC charging, which has a high demand for current in a short period of time and often requires modification of the power grid, and also impairs the service life of the battery. The use of the power exchange mode only takes a few minutes, and the battery can be charged centrally by the power station to protect the battery life. But compared to that, the construction cost of a replacement station varies from a few million to a few million, and there is also a great difficulty in unifying battery specifications.

In fact, as early as 2011, the National Grid put forward a 16-character principle of “mainly changing electricity, supplementing plug-in, centralized charging, and unified distribution” for electric vehicles, but Wang Binggang, head of the traffic team of the project specialist of the Ministry of Science and Technology This said, "After a period of implementation and research, the expert team felt that this policy was not appropriate." In his view, considering the degree of difficulty, the mode of electricity exchange is not realistic for large-scale promotion. He believes that a reasonable model should be "mainly scattered charging, supplemented by centralized charging."

Slow progress in infrastructure construction "Automotive manufacturers and power grid companies have different positions, mainly because there are big differences in profit splitting under the two models." A person involved in the production of electric buses told the Daily Economic News reporter that the battery It is the core profit of electric vehicle products. In the charging mode, the electric vehicle uses a fixed battery. The profit of the battery is controlled by the automaker. In the battery-changing mode, the control right of the battery is transferred to the energy supplier. The latter can obtain market profit in the battery segment, thus shortening The investment return period on the infrastructure. It is understood that the current battery cost accounts for at least 50% of the total cost of an electric vehicle, and the gross profit margin of an electric vehicle is generally more than 30%.

As the interests of both parties are difficult to balance, the development of electric vehicle infrastructure is slow. According to the “12th Five-Year Plan” for the development of electric vehicle science and technology, around 2015, a networked power supply system consisting of 400,000 charging piles and 2,000 charging and switching stations will be built in more than 20 model cities and surrounding areas. The number of charging piles and replacement stations in each city is 20,000 and 200 respectively. However, even Beijing and Shanghai, which currently lead the most advanced projects, currently have only about 1,275 and 1,700 charging piles respectively, which are far from the goal.

Dongfeng Nissan insiders told the “Daily Economic News” reporter that the related infrastructure is currently dominated by the power grid department, so it is difficult for companies to grasp the progress.

Jia Junguo, former director of the National Grid Corporation’s marketing department and party secretary of the Taiyuan Power Supply Company, once stated that "in 25 pilot cities, there are 20 state grids in the past few years. There is a clear subsidy for charging infrastructure in foreign countries. Why did you come to China and become a reward? We also hope that others will do it, and we will invest so much. In addition, in the 12th Five-Year Plan, there are clearly two types of infrastructure facilities, namely, charging and swapping. Why do we change the word 'change' across the board? "He said," If there is no such consensus in the upper levels, experts, and enterprises, it can only reach the pilot level and it cannot lead to the realization of the national strategy."

“Charging facilities are the lifeblood of the development of electric vehicles.” Wang Binggang emphasized that the current short mileage, difficulty charging and high cost of car purchases are still three major bottlenecks restricting development, but if the infrastructure can be quickly promoted, the other two major issues are also Can be solved.

Time-share leasing is expected to expand into the private market According to Wang Binggang, the overall sales target for new energy vehicles in 2015 will be 300,000. In the next phase of the promotion process, the private consumption market will become an important area of ​​capture and will account for 40% of overall sales. the above.

In the short term, the contradiction between the auto industry and the power grid companies is difficult to reconcile. How to use the limited resources to open the private market has become the industry's most concerned topic.

“Electric vehicle leasing model will be an important way to promote the development of the private market.” Wang Binggang said that in the early development of the electric vehicle industry, leasing should be another major business model developed in parallel with buses and taxis. On the one hand, from the level of car rental companies, the centralized allocation of resources is more likely to be favored by urban managers; on the other hand, it will also help private consumers to experience electric vehicles.

However, the precondition for the development of this model is to ensure the rental rate of car rental companies.

According to Jing Jingjing, general manager of Beijing Yika Pioneer Information Technology Co., Ltd., according to the traditional way of renting, the operating cost of an electric vehicle needs at least 3,000 yuan per month. If this is used as a vehicle rental fee, it does not have an advantage over traditional fuel vehicles. Calculated according to the city’s working life, the average monthly operating cost of a fuel vehicle ranges from RMB 1,000 to RMB 3,000.

"If we sell the car rental time to consumers in a short period of time, rather than selling it to consumers one month a month, it may be easy to accept." Shi Jingjing said that this so-called "taxis "The model can not only solve the problem of short range of electric vehicles, but also allow consumers to increase contact with electric vehicles within the acceptable price range. At present, Shanghai, Hangzhou and other places have implemented this model one after another.

Taking Beijing Yika Car Rental Co., Ltd., which has just been involved in electric vehicle leasing, as an example, the company's car rental fee is 59 yuan for two hours, 99 yuan for four hours, and 159 yuan for daily rent. The current occupancy rate is about 72%, which has reached the traditional rental car companies on holidays. The occupancy rate level. At the end of this year, the scale of the company's operations will be expanded from 16 vehicles in May to 300 vehicles.

However, it is worth noting that most of the leasing business needs to change vehicles in different places, and also put forward higher requirements for the construction of car rental networks. In the initial development of electric vehicle leasing, regional limitations are also a major problem.