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At present, apart from individual companies insisting on low-load driving, nearly 90% of the enterprises in the trichlorosilane industry have stopped production or overhauled, but the market downturn continues. The domestic mainstream price of TCS last week was 4500-5000 yuan per ton. Trichlorosilane prices have been lower than the cost line, Shandong, Henan, Hebei and other places in order to compete for downstream customers, low-cost frequent. It is expected that the price of trichlorosilane will remain low in the near future.
Polysilicon accounts for more than 90% of the downstream market share of trichlorosilane. Since the second half of last year, influenced by the European debt crisis, European countries led by Germany and Italy have substantially reduced subsidies for photovoltaic products, leading to a slowdown in the growth rate of the photovoltaic industry, a sharp drop in polysilicon prices and a persistent downturn in the market, resulting in severe impact on the trichlorosilane The price has been falling all the way, and it has fallen below the cost line. Since the beginning of this year, the emerging US PV market has closed its doors to Chinese PV companies due to "double opposition." Although the photovoltaic market in Asia and other countries has developed rapidly, the total volume and scale are insufficient to support and digest the rapidly expanding photovoltaic capacity. According to statistics, in 2012, the global demand for photovoltaic cells and polysilicon was only 21.5 billion watts and 178,800 tons, while the global production capacity reached 66 billion watts and 295,000 tons.
This year, China's total trichlorosilane production capacity will reach 1.3 million tons, and the demand will be about 800,000 tons. The supply will far exceed the demand. Moreover, the domestic market lacked demand and started slowly. In the second half of last year, after the photovoltaic industry suffered winter, many domestic policies were intensively introduced to form a favorable support for the photovoltaic industry. Among them, the approval of the Golden Sun demonstration project for photovoltaic power generation and the solar roof project for photovoltaic building has been enlarged. This year, the approvals for the two projects reached 1,709 megawatts and 225 megawatts, respectively, which was a substantial increase from last year, which stimulated the domestic photovoltaic market to a certain extent. It is expected that the installed capacity of photovoltaics in China will exceed 5 billion watts this year, an increase of 72.4% over the previous year. However, due to the excessive basic production capacity of photovoltaics, overall, it is still a glass of water.
At the beginning of 2011, the price of polysilicon was about 100 US dollars per kilogram, and fell to 25 to 30 U.S. dollars in the fourth quarter. Since this year, the price of polysilicon has hovered around 25 U.S. dollars, which is lower than the production cost. Most domestic polysilicon companies are under pressure due to the cost of capital and frequently lay off their staff, and the production load drops again and again. Affected by this, the selling price of trichlorosilane also declined rapidly, from 11,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of 2011 to around 5,000 yuan in the first quarter of this year. At present, despite the price cuts by the trichlorosilane companies and the reduction in production, there is still excess production that cannot be digested. Corporate costs are reversed and losses are serious.
Photovoltaic products are popularized in Europe and the United States, but they are slightly slow in domestic applications. Experts believe that the key to the problem lies in the matching and support of policies. From the perspective of the development of the European photovoltaic industry, the government's subsidy for electricity prices at a purchase price of around 0.4 Euro per kilowatt-hour is the fundamental driving force for the rapid development of the photovoltaic market. On May 23, the State Council held an executive meeting, reemphasizing “put steady growth in a more important position†and called for active adoption of policy measures to increase demand, which mentioned “supporting new energy products such as self-contained solar energy into public facilities. And family." Industry experts said that if the policy refers to the introduction of solar power generation equipment into public facilities and homes, it means that each household can become a generator and even sell electricity to the country. This will fundamentally solve the problem of solar energy grid connection. Bring new opportunities for the development of the photovoltaic industry.
According to industry analysts, the recent international market demand will continue to shrink, polysilicon prices will not be significantly improved in a short period of time, the trichlorosilane will still be implicated, the outlook is worrying, the price rise is more difficult. In the next step, the trichlorosilane enterprises should adhere to a diversified road and look to the silicone field to increase the market development efforts of silane coupling agents and strive to get out of the predicament as soon as possible.
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