International oil prices fell in 2006

Xinhua News Agency From the perspective of supply, due to restrictions on reserves, political and economic factors, some oil-producing countries have already stagnated their output and even regressed.

Experts said that as a bottleneck in the oil industry, the lack of oil refining capacity has exacerbated the tight supply of oil. It will stimulate the international oil prices to reach new heights in the future.

From a demand perspective, some experts believe that next year's global economic growth and changes in market demand will not support the continued rise in oil prices.

In 2005, the crude oil price in the international market rose spirally under the background of tight supply and demand. After several years of refreshing the historical record, it reached a long-term adjustment of as long as three months.

The sharp rise and fall in oil prices will have a great impact on the global economy and people's daily lives. Therefore, the trend of oil prices next year will surely become a focus that people are generally concerned about.

This year is a year in which oil prices fluctuate drastically. From the beginning of the year it conquered the $50 per barrel mark and on August 29 it set a record price of $70.85. In November, another road fell below the threshold of 60 US dollars, 58 US dollars and 57 US dollars. However, in December, the price of natural gas rose due to the cold weather in some parts of the United States, and the price of crude oil in the international market has risen again, with US$59 per barrel.

Will there be significant fluctuations in international oil prices in 2006? In this regard, various experts have different views. Some experts believe that due to the combined influence of multiple factors such as supply and demand, weather, and politics, international oil prices will continue the high adjustments since September this year, but the downside is very limited and is unlikely to fall below 40 US dollars. However, some experts and agencies believe that oil prices will rise further next year and remain above 60 US dollars.

From the perspective of supply, due to restrictions on reserves, political and economic factors, the output of some oil-producing countries has stagnated, and even a regression has occurred.

Oil production in Iraq, Russia, Venezuela, and Nigeria in 2005 may be less than in previous years, and output in major oil fields in Europe and North America also declined. According to the data from the French Petroleum Institute, global oil investment in 2004 was US$150 billion, an increase of 8.5%. Some crude oil investments will form new production capacity in 2006. It is estimated that the global oil investment in 2005 and 2006 will be 170 billion US dollars and 185 billion US dollars, respectively, an increase of 13% and 9%.

Bernard Pickens, the veteran of the world oil futures market and the president of the BP Energy Commodities Investment Fund, believes that the new oilfield has a long development cycle and is slow. Global oil production is nearing its peak. It is difficult to make major breakthroughs. How many articles can be done, once the world economy resumes its high growth momentum and triggers high oil demand, oil prices will surely be pushed up again. According to a report released by the Energy Intelligence Agency of the US Department of Energy in November, crude oil prices are expected to remain high in 2006, with the average global oil price ranging from US$64 to US$65 per barrel, as global crude oil production and production are unlikely to increase significantly in the near term.

As a bottleneck in the oil industry, the lack of oil refining capacity has exacerbated the tight supply of oil. In 2003 and 2004, when global oil demand increased by 2.4% and 3.2% respectively, refining capacity only increased by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency, pointed out that unless this bottleneck is finally resolved, it will stimulate international oil prices to reach new heights in the future.

From a demand perspective, experts believe that next year's global economic growth and changes in market demand will not support the continued rise in oil prices.

Due to the high oil prices, Global Perspectives lowered the global economic growth rate in 2006 to 3.2%. Dowpel Burton, a senior economist at TD Financial Group, believes that due to the impact of oil prices, the U.S. economic growth rate in the first half of 2006 will be reduced from 3.5% this year to 2%. The slowdown in global economic growth will reduce oil demand. The forecasts of OPEC and the US Department of Energy in November also showed that the world oil demand growth rate will slow down to 1.8% in 2006, which is significantly lower than the 3.2% in 2004.

Friedrich Russell, oil analyst at Societe Generale, and Richard Ellmann, energy analyst at Nobel Group, both believe that due to the slowdown in global economic growth in 2006, the overall oil demand will slow down and the oil price will rise. Will be limited. The former predicts that the average price of crude oil in 2006 will drop to around $52, while the latter believes that the $40 mark may be tested.

However, the International Energy Agency chief economist Fatih Birol believes that in 2006 the international oil price will not drop too much. Given that the trading volume of hedge funds already accounts for more than 60% of the world's oil market, the short-term impact of political, weather, and other sudden factors on oil supply can be a “subject” that fuels speculators. According to Mitchell Rothman, senior energy analyst at Merrill Lynch, "As soon as an important link in the crude oil supply chain is suddenly interrupted, international oil prices will fluctuate drastically."

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