Heavy truck market rebounded hopelessly during the year

This year, the demand for the heavy truck market has shrunk dramatically. Although there was a brief recovery in the market in July and August, the decline in sales volume has been widened again in the past two or three months. As of now, the demand situation in the heavy truck market has not shown any significant improvement.

Liberation of the new Dawei

On the one hand, as a means of production, the market demand for heavy trucks is closely related to the macro economy. Since the beginning of this year, the slowdown of domestic macroeconomic growth and tightening monetary policies have caused a lack of demand for heavy trucks. On the other hand, the existence of high oil prices, low freight rates, and arbitrary charges have also drastically reduced the profitability of heavy trucks. Seriously dampened the user's enthusiasm for buying cars; In addition, the implementation of the "Road Safety Protection Regulations" in the second half of this year also objectively aggravated the user's wait-and-see attitude, further inhibiting the growth of heavy truck sales.

Under the combined effects of these various unfavorable factors, the heavy truck market began to enter a new round of adjustment period from a period of rapid growth. In addition to the industry downturn, the sales of domestic heavy-duty truck companies have almost disappeared except for a few companies with relatively small sales bases. Among them, the decline in FAW Jiefang , China National Heavy Duty Truck , and Beiben was the highest.

Regarding the accomplishment of this year's target, Han Xiaobin, regional manager of FAW Liberation Anhui, made no hesitation: “We are sure that the regional sales target set by the company at the beginning of the year will not be completed.” Although sales volume has fallen by nearly 10% compared with the same period of last year, Han Xiaobin also said frankly: “Not only us, we estimate that most manufacturers will not accomplish their tasks this year. Our main task now is to investigate the demand trends of products and adjust marketing strategies to better respond to the market next year.”

Dongfeng Tianlong

Unpredictable market next year

Although it was nearly a month away from the end of 2011, but faced with a bleak transcript of 10.5% year-on-year sales decline in the first 10 months, regardless of how the market performed in the fourth quarter, the heavy-duty truck market was substantially The fact of falling is hard to change. The only suspense, only the amount of decline will be. Various companies have also begun to predict the 2012 market preparation and study the countermeasures. This also makes the market trend of the next year become the focus of industry attention. Because this is not only related to the development of car sales goals for the next year, but also affect the determination of their cart type and business policy adjustments.

At present, the industry generally believes that the heavy truck market in 2012 is still not optimistic. According to Wan Yongjian, deputy general manager of GAC Hino Motors, the possibility of a recovery in the heavy truck market next year is very small, so it is not ruled out that the sales volume may be flat or even falling.

However, some people are very optimistic. After analyzing the macroeconomic situation and industry policies, the auto analyst of Guojin Securities believes that at present, China is pre-adjusting its economic policies and moderate relaxation of monetary policy is underway. This will be beneficial to the heavy-duty truck market next year. Factors that are conducive to the recovery of sales growth. "I think the sales of heavy trucks will increase by about 10% next year and the total volume will be close to 1 million." Ping An Securities auto analyst Wang Dean's view is slightly optimistic: "I expect the market sales will be flat or slightly higher year-on-year next year, the annual market may show a trend of low and high."

Liberation j6

Policy or regulation may promote bottoming out in the heavy truck market

The influence of policies and regulations on the heavy truck market cannot be overlooked. At present, the increase in the oversight and normalization of domestic oversight force will also force the current widespread overload phenomenon to gradually decrease, which will bring a lot of new capacity demand. Relevant data show that the average overload rate in the heavy truck industry is still as high as 30%. This means that if we completely eliminate overloading, in theory, it will be expected to boost the demand for 30% of the heavy truck market. In addition, the National IV emission standards may be postponed until January 2013, which will also lead to early purchase of the heavy truck market, which will increase the annual sales growth of the industry.

In addition, the reporter also learned that in some parts of the country, the price of road freight has started to pick up momentum. In the near future, refined oil prices have also been slightly lowered. At the same time, the implementation of many favorable policies for logistics transportation vehicles in the “State of the Nine Articles” has also contributed to improving the profitability of heavy truck users. This will undoubtedly increase the willingness of some potential users to purchase cars, which in turn will boost the growth of heavy truck sales.

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