·February dealer inventory coefficient hit a three-year high and hard to fall in March

On March 20th, China Automobile Dealers Association (hereinafter referred to as the circulation association) released the “Auto Dealer Inventory Survey Results” in February. In February this year, the dealer inventory factor hit a new high since February 2014, reaching 2.55, exceeding dealer inventory. The warning line was 41%, up 13% year-on-year.

Among them, the joint venture brand inventory coefficient is 2.15, the imported brand inventory coefficient is 1.96, the independent brand inventory coefficient is 2.53, and the three major inventory factors are above the inventory warning line.

At the enterprise level, the inventory factors of 17 brand dealers such as Dongfeng Yueda Kia, Dongfeng Peugeot, Dongfeng Citroen, SAIC Volkswagen, and Volvo exceeded the inventory warning line, and dealer inventory pressure was evident.

NBD Auto (Micro Signal: NBD-AUTO) learned that not only in February, but also in January this year, the dealer inventory factor was as high as 1.6, a year-on-year increase of 62%.

Hui Yumei, director of the Industry Coordination Department of the Circulation Association, told NBD that the inventory factor of the dealers in the first two months of this year was high, mainly because of the combination of the Spring Festival holiday and the narrowing of the purchase tax policy, resulting in the automobile market in January and February. Consumption is cold.

According to the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association (hereinafter referred to as the Federation), the overall sales of passenger cars in the first two months of this year fell by 2.4% year-on-year. This is also the first time in the passenger car market in the past 12 months. Accumulated negative retail sales growth.

In this regard, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Association, said that in addition to the narrowing of the purchase tax policy, the earlier factors of the Spring Festival led to a 10-day pre-holiday sales period less than last year, which resulted in a short period of pre-holiday sales. The long dormancy period has a great impact on sales in January and February.

“Although the Spring Festival factor will make the inventory factor of the dealers in the first two months high, the impact of the Spring Festival this year has increased compared with previous years,” Hui Yumei also told NBD Cars, although the dealers opened this year. The high inventory situation that may occur in the year has been adjusted, but it is clear that the consumer market is colder than the dealers have predicted.

In fact, although it has been at a high level for two consecutive months, the situation in the next March may not change.

"From the current reaction of dealers, the market situation in March is still very bad." Hui Yumei told NBD that some dealers sold less than half of the same period last year, in addition to most manufacturers. With the quarterly rebate policy, dealers are forced to accept high inventories in order to get quarterly rebates, so the dealer inventory index will remain at a high level in March and higher than the same period last year.

For the situation in April, Hui Yumei believes that after the high inventory coefficient of the previous three months, the dealers will adjust the inventory accordingly, so the inventory coefficient in April will be lower than that in March. However, the extent of the decline depends mainly on the consumption of the market.

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