Commercial vehicles face new opportunities for structural adjustment

Thanks to policies and the impact of China's economic recovery, commercial vehicle sales in the first half of 2010 have been very hot. Will this trend be maintained in the second half of the year? Where will the market go? Presumably, commercial vehicle companies are very concerned about this. Since commercial vehicles are closely related to the economic situation and policy trends, the economic trends in the second half of the year, including monetary policy, fiscal policy, and investment in fixed assets, are closely related to the automobile. Therefore, it is worth predicting and analyzing.

Since the economic situation in the second half of the year is relatively complicated, it mainly depends on how the national macro-control policies are followed, but the general judgment is that the impact of the commercial vehicle industry will not be too great.

The second half has stabilized

For the media to discuss whether there is a risk of a double bottom in the Chinese economy, many experts and scholars have expressed negative opinions. “From the perspective of the entire economic situation in the second half of this year, there is no second-level argument.” Wang Xiaoguang, a researcher at the Policy Consulting Department of the National School of Administration, said that the Chinese economy’s rebound in 2009 was mainly driven by external forces such as policies, which stimulated the entire economy. The current decline in the industrial structure is normal.

Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist at Galaxy Securities, said that for the automotive industry, there will be no major declines in the second half of this year, the second bottom and so on, but it is not possible to return to the situation of high growth last year. In general, the auto market will return to its own development pattern and maintain a relatively stable growth.

Xu Changming, director of the Information Resources Development Department of the National Information Center, is most worried about the impact of the European sovereign debt crisis on the Chinese economy. “If the scope of influence expands, European countries will further reduce their expenditures, which will affect China’s exports. In this way, China will adopt a proactive and loose fiscal policy to deal with this situation; if sovereign debt does not have much impact on the real economy, China Exports are also good, so our own regulatory efforts will be relatively large.Overall, investment spending will not change much in the second half of the year, the probability of fine-tuning commercial vehicles will be greater, but the possibility of large fluctuations is not Large, that is to say the year-on-year growth rate decline, and the absolute amount will not fall, mainly because the base last year is too high.” Xu Changming said.

The era of structural adjustment is approaching

Specific to the automotive industry, with the gradual decline in total demand, automotive companies will face the pressure of industrial adjustment. In 2009, a series of policies conducive to the development of the automobile industry were implemented, and their policy benefits were diminishing. Wang Xiaoguang believes that “the most urgent need for China’s economy is time, which requires structural adjustments in a certain amount of time and space, especially focusing on the adjustment of the industrial structure so that excessively rapid growth can be slowed down. Although policies have strength, policies do Cannot replace market demand, the market demand will be saturated.This includes two aspects, the first is investment, to a large extent, artificial and forward-looking; second is domestic consumption, the short-term growth is more optimistic, but In the medium to long term, the pressure is very great, because the per capita distribution gap is getting bigger and bigger. I think that the GDP growth down to 8% to 9% is a normal condition. Do not think that the Chinese economy has a problem. This is a very good structural readjustment. Period of time."

Wang Xiaoguang further explained: “The adjustment of industrial structure in 2009 was not sufficient and will continue this year. This adjustment period will take at least 2-3 years. During the adjustment period, the growth rate of GDP must not be maintained at more than 10%. It should be stable at 8. Between 9% and 9%, we believe that the future GDP growth rate is between 8% and 9%.

The growth of the automobile industry in the future must be high quality growth, which requires the upgrading of the industrial structure. Therefore, during this period of time, companies should strive to solve their own problems and speed up the pace of structural adjustment.

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