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According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, a total of 191,300 cars were produced in September, an increase of 69.7% over the same month of last year. From January to September, the country produced 1.437 million passenger cars, an increase of 87.2% over the same period of last year. In September, the production of cars in the country increased by 21,900 units over August, and the increase in production was more intense. If it compares with the production of cars in each month this year, in fact, the output of cars in September has reached a record high. In the first 8 months, 14 key state-owned enterprises in the automotive industry achieved a main business income of 286.85 billion yuan, an increase of 40.5%, a 2.8 percentage point drop from the previous seven months, and a profit of 23.25 billion yuan. The growth rate was 76.7%, and the growth rate was 6.8 percentage points lower than the previous 7 months. The production and sales rate was 98.6%, which was the same as the previous 7 months.
Hujie Consulting believes that the strong growth momentum of the Chinese auto industry will continue in 2004, but the growth rate will fall below 50%. The total profits of automobile companies will further increase substantially, but as the tariffs decrease, the overall price of automobiles will decline, and the profit rate of domestic-funded auto companies will begin to turn a corner.
According to customs data, China's auto imports totaled 130,200 vehicles in the first three quarters of the year, an increase of 40.5% year-on-year, with imports valued at US$3.808 billion, a year-on-year increase of 64.7%. The dramatic increase in imported cars and rapid growth in production capacity indicate that car demand is real and credible. In addition, the increase in imports exceeded the increase in imports, indicating that imported car prices are high-priced vehicles. It is worth noting that this happened during the devaluation of the US dollar this year.
However, due to the rapid growth of consumption, the abundance of capital and the informatization of production efficiency can not be synchronized. This "good day" seems to only be calculated in months. According to SASAC sources, the inventory of finished products of 14 major state-owned enterprises in the Chinese auto industry at the end of August was 23.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.5%, of which 9 were companies with an increase of more than 20% year-on-year. . The year-on-year increase in inventory at the end of May, July and July was 13.2%, 18.6% and 27.1%, respectively.
According to the company’s report, the reason for the continuous and continuous increase in finished product inventory is mainly due to the fact that, on the one hand, car sales were unusually hot in the same period of last year, and the inventory level of finished products was relatively low, which caused a relatively small base for inventory growth this year. On the other hand, since the second half of last year, the impact of the scale of production has been kept at a relatively high level. The competition in China's auto sales market has become increasingly fierce, and the market share of major auto manufacturers has been reduced to varying degrees.
Recently, foreign-invested research institutions such as Goldman Sachs have issued warnings about the Chinese auto industry’s imminent surplus. And public opinion is also discussing whether China's auto industry has experienced the "Brazilian phenomenon" from 1996 to 1998. Our point of view is: China will surely have a "Brazilian phenomenon", oversupply of production, but it will not necessarily result in "Brazilian results", and a large number of foreign automobile factories will fail. why? First, the economic scale is different. For example, Brazil’s import and export trade volume is only one-fifth that of China. Second, the population is different. Only China’s urban population is three times the total population of Brazil. Third, Brazil is fully foreign-funded and developing the auto industry under high tariffs. China started as a joint venture and selected large-scale enterprises. In addition, China's auto tariffs are constantly moving down. Fourth, the cost of Brazilian automotive labor differs from that of the United States by half, while in China it is 1/7. Therefore, production oversupply will surely happen at some time in the future, but the result of foreign-funded enterprises and domestic-funded enterprises will certainly not be the same. Because foreign-funded enterprises can face the global market, the competitiveness of domestic-funded enterprises has been exhausted in China.
In the first three quarters, China’s auto exports totaled US$3.388 billion, up 32.9% year-on-year, including 72,700 vehicles exported, an increase of 239.7% year-on-year, and export volume of US$272 million, a year-on-year increase of 70. 8%. It shows that the current Chinese auto export prices have fallen on the contrary, showing a clear contrast with the import situation. Recently, foreign-invested automobile companies have introduced new models in China, especially in the mid-to-high grades. It has taken the approach of launching to the whole world, and China is the first time to launch a country, which is different from last year. This is exactly what they plan for.
As the global division of labor in the world’s auto industry has become a large group, once the development space of domestic auto companies is hindered, especially in the category of cars, the current influx of newly-established domestic-funded auto companies and an endless number of auto shopping malls will encounter unprecedented difficulties. Foreign-funded enterprises can use the advantages of labor costs in the Chinese market to return their domestic markets.
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