2069: The national per capita food consumption reached a peak of 507 kg?

[China Agricultural Machinery Industry News] China's food consumption and production is expected to stabilize after 2030. By 2030, China's food self-sufficiency rate will remain above 90%. Driven by the increase in income, per capita food consumption will continue to grow rapidly in the next 20 years, especially in the next 10 years.

According to the predicted population structure and quantity, the peak of feed grain per capita indirect consumption in the country will appear in 2069, the peak number is 370.2 kg; the national per capita ration consumption will continue to decline until 2031 and will stabilize at 136. 8 kg; the national per capita food consumption reached a peak of 507 kg in 2069.

2069: The national per capita food consumption reached a peak of 507 kg?

Food consumption is influenced by many factors such as eating habits, income levels and demographic structure. In China's transition from high-income to high-income, the increase in dietary structure caused by income growth and the shift of rural population driven by urbanization will affect food consumption. From the experience of developed countries, the upgrading of dietary structure is mainly reflected in the growth of animal product consumption. However, with the increase of income, the per capita consumption of animal products will eventually stabilize and even decline slightly after experiencing rapid growth. Therefore, the key to predicting the future food demand in China is to find out the changes in per capita consumption during the transition of dietary structure, including the differences in per capita food consumption of different groups, the changes in per capita food consumption structure, and the per capita consumption peaks of different varieties of food.

Characteristics and trends of per capita food consumption in China

With the improvement of China's economic development and income level, the consumption of animal products of urban and rural residents has continued to rise, and has formed a substitute for direct food consumption. China's grain consumption structure has shifted from direct ration consumption to indirect feed grain consumption. Judging from the food consumption situation of urban and rural residents in China in the past decade, the consumption of rations has gradually declined, and the consumption of feed grains has continued to rise. The consumption of rations of urban residents in China has basically stabilized. Since 2009, the annual consumption of per capita rations of urban residents has basically stabilized at 130 kg.

The consumption of rations of rural residents has dropped significantly. In 2012, the annual consumption of per capita rations of rural residents decreased by 58.6 kg compared with ten years ago. The indirect feed grain consumption of urban and rural residents has increased to varying degrees. In 2012, per capita feed grain consumption of urban residents reached 347.9 kg, an increase of 28.2 kg compared with 2003. The average annual growth rate in the past decade was 0.94%, and the average annual growth rate in the past five years was 3.40%. In 2012, the per capita feed grain consumption of rural residents was 178 kg, an increase of 57.1 kg compared with 2003. The average annual growth rate during the decade was 4.39%, and the average annual growth rate in the past five years was 5.68%.

In addition to the different urban and rural consumption behaviors, there are also significant differences in the grain consumption structure of different income groups. Using the data analysis of the Food Consumption Survey of the Institute of Food and Nutrition Development of the Ministry of Agriculture from 2013 to 2014, it was found that with the increase of income level, the per capita consumption of food and drink in urban and rural residents showed a downward trend, the consumption of feed grain showed an upward trend, and the per capita consumption of edible food. Upward trend. Referring to the income classification standard of the National Bureau of Statistics, the research team will divide the income level into three levels: low, medium and high, based on the distinction between urban and rural areas. The residents of the urban high-income group consume 76.6 kilograms of food per year more than the urban low-income group, including 15.8 kilograms of less rations and 92.4 kilograms of multi-consumption foodstuffs. The residents of the rural high-income group consume 134.6 kilograms of grain per year more than the low-income group in rural areas, including 7.2 kilograms of less rations and 141.8 kilograms of multi-consumption foodstuffs.

The food consumption gap between different income groups in cities shrinks with the increase of income. The difference in food consumption between different income groups in rural areas increases with the increase of income, and the change of consumption of feed grain is much larger than that of rations. The annual per capita grain consumption of urban middle- and low-income groups differs by 60.6 kg, of which the difference in rations is 4.9 kg, and the difference in feed grain is 65.5 kg; the annual per capita consumption of food in the high- and middle-income groups differs by 16 kg, of which The difference in rations is 10.9 kg, and the difference in feed grains is 26.9 kg. The per capita annual consumption of food in rural middle- and low-income groups differs by 29.1 kg, of which the difference in rations is 3.5 kg, and the difference in feed grain is 32.6 kg; the annual per capita consumption of food in high- and middle-income groups is 105.5 kg. Among them, the difference in rations is 3.7 kg, and the difference in feed grains is 109.2 kg. From the perspective of urban-rural contrast, the consumption level of rural high-income groups is close to that of urban low-income groups. The per capita annual consumption of food in the rural high-income group is 450.3 kg, including 132.3 kg of rations and 318 kg of feed grains. The annual food consumption is only 16.7 kg different from that of the urban low-income group.

Judgment of peak demand for food consumption per capita in China

China is in the transition period of dietary structure transformation. In the future, China's per capita food consumption level will continue to grow in a certain period of time, and the growth of animal product consumption demand will be the main driving force for the growth of per capita food consumption demand. Therefore, the key to predicting the peak demand per capita food is to find the key point of the turning demand for feed grain caused by animal products, that is, the peak demand for per capita feed grain consumption. In the following, taking into account the characteristics of consumption changes in developed countries and regions in East Asia and high-income groups in China, we make a preliminary judgment on the peak demand for food consumption per capita in China.

(1) Peak per capita consumption of food and materials consumed in developed countries and regions in East Asia

We compare East Asian developed countries and regions with similar dietary habits to China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, and South Korea. It can be found that with the increase of per capita GDP, these countries and regions have experienced per capita consumption of major animal products after per capita consumption of energy, protein and fat from grain-based to more animal products. GDP reached a high value in the period of 10,000 to 30,000 US dollars, and then stabilized or decreased slightly. This shows that per capita food consumption does not grow unrestricted as economic development and income increase. At the same time as the transformation of food varieties, the per capita consumption of various foods is peak.