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Wind power thermal power is expected to be the same price
National Energy Board requirements in 2020, wind power on-grid tariffs and thermal power leveling. Due to the inability to obtain the thermal power cost calculation model, it is difficult to compare the two.
According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance forecast, wind power costs will be reduced by about 32% in 2040, and it is estimated that wind power costs will be reduced by 7.5% in 2020. If we consider the target of achieving the same price for wind power by thermal power only in some regions with good wind resource conditions in 2020, the prices of the two electricity sources are about 0.45 yuan / kWh and 0.5 yuan / kWh respectively at the current prices. After the cost of wind power is reduced by 7.5% , The wind power price can be reduced to about 0.4625 yuan / kWh. Taking into account the UHV, regional consumption and other factors, it can roughly achieve the same goal of thermal power with wind power.
Reduce the cost of operation and maintenance is the key
How to reduce this 7.5% of the cost? I think that should not be compressed in the cost of the unit, but should be compressed wind farm operation and maintenance costs. Since 2010, after the start of the price war between domestic manufacturers, unit prices hit new lows, rebounding in the recent two years, basically stabilizing around 4,000 yuan / kW, the price is close to the bottom line of complete machine manufacturers, and continue to compress those that are not conducive to wind power Sustainable development of the industry.
However, if the reliability of wind turbines can be improved through technological improvements, or the operation and maintenance of wind farms can be guided through big data analysis of wind farm operations, the operation and maintenance costs of the wind farms will be reduced on the basis of the current level, so that it is easy to achieve wind farm leveling The cost of electricity LCOE decreased by 7.5%.
Taking the maintenance rate of 1% ~ 1.5% as common in the current feasibility study as an example, under the condition of keeping other conditions unchanged, as long as the maintenance rate is reduced to 0.3% ~ 0.8%, the LCOE Reduce the target of 7.5%. Moreover, there is room for reduction in the costs of materials included in the operation and maintenance costs of the wind farm. Therefore, it is feasible in the short term to reduce the cost of electricity in wind farms by reducing the operation and maintenance costs.
However, in the long term (32% reduction in wind power costs by 2040), reducing electricity costs for wind farms will also require the use of new materials, new technologies and new processes to further reduce unit costs and wind farm construction costs.
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