High Oil Prices Stir the International Political Situation

In the past week, the New York market crude oil futures price stood at more than 100 US dollars per barrel for two days in a row, causing global attention. Gideon Rachman, a columnist in the Financial Times, pointed out in his column that the oil price of $100 a barrel is not just a figure, it will prompt politicians around the world to carefully consider the political consequences. The United States "New York Times" pointed out bluntly that "the three-digit oil price has rewritten the political and economic map of the world, posing a challenge to some old concepts of power."

High oil prices affect strength comparison

The most direct beneficiaries of the soaring oil prices are oil-exporting countries. Among these, there are traditional Middle Eastern oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Iran, as well as non-Middle East oil producing countries such as Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria and Angola. The increase in oil revenues, while significantly increasing the economic strength and economic growth of these countries, has also given rise to their influence in regional and even international affairs.

Among the many oil exporting countries, Russia is the most political and economic "heavy" country. The gradual restoration of its national power and its influence on international politics are also most obvious. In the considerable period after the end of the Cold War, Russia’s national power declined sharply and economic development stagnated. However, in recent years, the ever-increasing oil wealth has propelled Russia’s economic recovery. It has also enabled Russia to rejuvenate its position as a big power, adding to the strength of the strategy against the United States and NATO. In South America, Venezuela, which is often “open to the public” in the United States, is also the largest oil exporter in the region.

High oil prices will affect all oil importing countries. Relatively speaking, the developed countries benefiting from the upgrading of the economic structure and the improvement of energy efficiency are more capable of withstanding the impact of rising oil prices. Many developing countries that are not oil-producing countries have to bear the economic and social consequences of high oil prices. With heavy burdens, its economic development, national security, and diplomatic strategy must all be constrained by high oil prices.

High oil price intensifies strategic game

The record high oil prices reflect a basic fact: The oil resources on Earth are decreasing at an alarming rate. Many analysts have pointed out that the world has bid farewell to the "cheap era." The high oil prices have added to the sense of crisis in oil-importing countries. It has also made the battle for securing oil supply more intense. At the same time, it has allowed some oil-producing countries to have more chips in the international political arena.

In recent years, "energy security" has become a hot vocabulary in international politics. Oil-importing countries hope to find a reliable and stable energy supplier, while oil-producing countries are also trying to obtain a long-term and stable export market. "Diversification" has therefore become the best choice for all parties to achieve energy security. Bilateral and multilateral interaction and cooperation between oil-producing and consumer countries has become a major feature of the global energy diplomacy.

As the game involving the development of petroleum resources intensifies, the safety issues in energy production areas and energy channels are further highlighted. The Middle East is not only the most concentrated oil resource in the world, but also the most turbulent region in the world. For example, the forces inside and outside Iraq are fighting for the oil issue in the country, and oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia are increasingly becoming the focus targets of terrorist attacks. While some oil-producing countries in Africa have increased their strategic importance, they are also facing increasing security problems.

High oil prices affect big country relations

Among the major countries in the world, Russia is the country with the most abundant oil and gas resources. At present, Russia and Japan produce more than 9.7 million barrels of crude oil, making it the second largest oil exporter in the world. The major Western countries such as the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany are highly dependent on imported oil, and their dependence is on the rise. It is predicted that by 2020, the proportion of oil imports from the United States will increase from the current 58% to 75%.

Since the late 1990s, Russia has been seeking to revive its status as a big power. Relying on huge oil and gas resources to achieve this goal can be a shortcut. In fact, Russian President Vladimir Putin does not say anything about using the "energy card." He once stated clearly that Russia’s use of energy resources to implement its own national strategy is “very normal”.

Although Western countries have always linked oil and diplomacy closely, it seems difficult to adapt to the use of "energy weapons" by Russia. The United States has publicly accused Russia of using energy as a tool to “treat and coerce” its neighboring countries. The EU, which seeks Russia on energy issues, has been caught in a dilemma. On the one hand, the EU hopes to reduce its dependence on Russian energy resources to enhance its sense of energy security. On the other hand, the EU also requires Russia to open its oil and gas resources to Western capital.

The Central Asia-Caspian region, which is rich in oil and gas resources, has become an important region for strategic game between Russia and the West in recent years. Due to historical reasons, Russia has an important influence on the development of oil and gas resources and the direction of pipelines in the region, but western countries are not willing to act as “watchers”. In May 2005, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline began filling oil, becoming the first region in the region to bypass Russia’s energy export pipeline. In addition, the United States and the European Union have also proposed to build a trans-Caspian pipeline that passes through the bottom of the Caspian Sea so that Central Asian natural gas can be exported to the international market without Russian control.

With the continuous rise of oil prices, the impact of oil on international politics has become increasingly apparent. As the Financial Times said, "If you look at the major geopolitical issues facing the world, you will find that energy is the core of most problems."