Demand starts in the LED lighting industry and waits for "dawn"

After a round of rapid expansion of production capacity and relative surplus of production capacity, with the gradual maturity of the popularization conditions and policy support, a new round of market opportunities for LED lighting is gestating. Recently, the reporter conducted an in-depth investigation in the Pearl River Delta, the most developed area of ​​LED lighting epitaxial packaging and lighting industry in China. The survey found that companies in the LED lighting industry chain are facing different directions of breakthrough in the face of the darkness before dawn. It is worth noting that companies engaged in the manufacture of LED lighting terminal products may become the first beneficiaries of the LED lighting market. The giants of traditional lamps and lanterns in China are also ready to take off, and the huge production capacity and long-term accumulated production experience of traditional lamps are rapidly transferred to LED lighting products. Together with its perfect marketing network, it is expected to be acquired in the emerging LED lighting market. The corresponding market share. As a strategic emerging industry, although the LED lighting industry seems to have unlimited money, after experiencing the fierce expansion of production capacity in 2010 and 2011, the production capacity has been relatively surplus, and LED lighting companies are facing a sharp decline in price and profit margin. risk. Since the second half of last year, some small-scale LED lighting extension and packaging companies have suffered large losses. However, according to many reporters, the LED lighting industry has experienced a huge earthquake, and a new round of market opportunities is also gestating. On the one hand, with the sharp drop in chip prices, the price of LED lighting terminal products has dropped to a level not far from traditional energy-saving lamps, and large-scale replacement of traditional light sources by LED light sources has become possible. On the other hand, in November 2011, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a roadmap for eliminating incandescent lamps. China's elimination of high-energy lighting products has actually entered the implementation phase from the national regulatory level. On May 23, the Guangdong Provincial People's Government issued a notice requesting that Guangdong Province popularize LED lighting in the field of public lighting within three years. By then, it is expected that the LED output value in Guangdong Province will reach 500 billion yuan. In the Pearl River Delta, China's LED lighting epitaxial packaging and lighting industry's most developed areas, the LED lighting industry chain companies are breaking out in different directions, preparing for the huge market demand to be launched. Enterprise investment slows down and seeks industry consolidation opportunities According to the survey data of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute at the end of May, the price of LED chips continues to decline, with an average annual decline of nearly 40. The capacity growth rate of epitaxial chips also dropped from 100 in 2010 to 50 in 2011. At the same time, in the newly produced LCD TVs in China, the penetration rate of LED TVs has basically reached 100, which means that the LED backlight market will not increase significantly in the future. The main driving force for LED market growth in the future will turn to the general lighting market. According to the data released by China National Semiconductor Lighting Engineering R&D and Industry Alliance, there are about 3,000 companies in the entire LED industry, including less than 100 epitaxial chip companies, more than 600 packaging companies, and more than 2,000 LED application companies. The largest chip companies have sales revenue of less than 1.8 billion yuan; the largest packaging companies are less than 1.1 billion yuan, and the market share is less than 4; LED lighting companies sell more than 100 million yuan of lighting fixtures. Regarding the decline in the industry's profit margin, a number of LED listed companies have indicated that they have consciously slowed down this year's investment rate and turned to seeking industry consolidation opportunities. Substitute effect and government investment ready to go This reporter learned from a number of companies engaged in the production of LED terminal products, the hardships of the middle and upper reaches of the enterprise, brought about a substantial decline in the cost of downstream terminal products, currently replacing 15W traditional daily use The cost of a 4W LED bulb with energy-saving bulbs has dropped to less than $10, which is comparable to the cost of a 15W energy-saving bulb. However, compared with traditional energy-saving light bulbs, LED lighting has obvious advantages of lower energy consumption, longer life and better color rendering performance. Therefore, once market acceptance is recognized, large-scale substitution effects will appear. In addition, local government policy subsidies for LED lighting are also undergoing significant changes. After the investment leap in 2010 and 2011, the local government's financial subsidy policy for mid-upstream production equipment has basically ended, and now it has begun to turn to policy support for the replacement of downstream traditional lamps. For example, Guangdong Province clearly stated in the “Implementation Plan for Promoting the Use of LED Lighting Products” that LED lighting in the field of public lighting will be popularized within three years, and that all new lighting projects invested by local government departments and state-owned enterprises and institutions will adopt LED lighting products. . According to the reporter's understanding, Guangdong has already achieved LED lighting on several national highways. The country's first LED-illuminated highway in Shenzhen has completed the reconstruction of the 120 highway highway section. It is understood that the commercial and daily LED lighting products of many listed companies have already had a relatively strong price competitiveness compared with traditional energy-saving lamps, and they have the conditions for launching the market. LED lighting industry is about to be detonated by rapidly growing demand. For LED lighting companies in the middle and upper reaches of the industry chain, the key now is whether they can survive short-term overcapacity and industry integration; for LED lighting companies that manufacture downstream terminals. , is the problem of getting started on the starting line.

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