Commercial Vehicles: Can 2008 Continue to Glorify

“In early 2007, our production and sales plan was 80,000 units. We didn’t expect that we sold nearly 60,000 vehicles in the first half of the year. In the end, we sold more than 100,000 vehicles in the year, an increase of 67% over the previous year, and we boarded China in one fell swoop. Heavy truck sales champion." China National Heavy Duty Truck Vice President Wang Wenyu talked about the rapid growth of business sales in 2007, still concealing the excitement of the heart.

In 2007, Yu Tung-xiang, the president of Yutong Bus, also enjoyed the same joy. In the absence of large and medium-sized domestic passenger car market, Yutong, the leader of China's bus industry, sold 25,522 passenger cars throughout the year, an increase of 41.5% year-on-year; of which, 3,319 outlets, an increase of 84% year-on-year??

According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Industry D, from January to November 2007, domestic commercial vehicles produced and sold 2,308,800 and 2,298,100 vehicles, an increase of 23.83% and 24.12% year-on-year, higher than the year-on-year growth of 22.25% and 23.19%. Among them, the production and sales of passenger cars were 219,800 and 21,900, an increase of 24.74% and 28.83% respectively; the production and sales of goods vehicles were 1,398,100 and 1,395,400, an increase of 17.14% and 17.38% respectively.

Although the performance of other commercial vehicle segments such as China Card, large and medium-sized passenger vehicles was not as eye-catching as heavy trucks, and the bus market experienced a downturn, but in the aftermath of a market downturn of more than two years, in 2007, outperforming the broader market. "China's commercial vehicle industry, or experience the feeling of embarrassment.

Heavy truck "blowout"

Whether 2008 can cross "policy"

· In 2007, the monthly sales growth chart for the domestic heavy truck market was opened, and the meaning of the word “blowout” jumped on paper.

——Based on the sales volume of 307,000 units in 2006, it has increased by more than 58% year-on-year and exceeded 480,000 units at one stroke;

- Although sales of heavy trucks have been steadily declining since April, the second sales peak in September and October of the previous year did not appear. However, compared with 2006, there has been a significant increase in sales every month;

-- Nearly 60% of the industry's growth not only exceeded the 30.55% increase in 2006, but also compared with 2005, when sales fell sharply, it was a heaven and an underground.

At the beginning of last year, a commercial vehicle annual forecast report had made such a prediction for the heavy truck market in 2007: “Although the macro environment will continue to support the rapid growth of heavy trucks, it does not support the surge in heavy trucks. Therefore, in the first half of 2007, heavy trucks The market will continue to maintain its strength, but the growth rate in the second half of the year will fall. It is expected that the annual growth rate of heavy trucks in 2007 will be around 20%, but it is impossible to reach the growth level in 2006."

What makes analysts look away at the heavy truck market?

China National Heavy Duty Truck Vice President Wang Wenyu believes that there are mainly the following reasons. The first is the trend of macroeconomics. In 2007, the growth rate of China's GDP and the increase in capital construction investment were both at a high level, which greatly stimulated the demand for the heavy truck market. The second is the wide-range promotion of the toll-by-weight toll, which has led to a significant drop in the maximum load-carrying capacity of transport vehicles. To ensure capacity, transport companies must purchase more large-tonnage heavy trucks. Thirdly, the commercial vehicle III standard will be formally implemented in the country on July 1, 2008. Given that the cost of the State III commercial vehicle is significantly higher than that of the State II vehicle, part of the purchasing power will be released in advance. Fourth, heavy truck exports have risen sharply. The annual export volume has exceeded 100,000 vehicles.

This year, the country will implement a prudent fiscal policy and a tight monetary policy, strictly control the excessive growth of investment, and prevent the economy from turning from excessive to overheated. What will this obvious macro-control signal mean for the commercial vehicle industry?

“As long as the Chinese economy continues to grow, heavy-duty truck companies have hope.” Wang Wenyu believes that although the increase in capital construction investment is expected to slow down, China’s economy will continue to maintain steady and rapid growth in 2008. Under this backdrop, the heavy truck market There should be no problem to achieve growth of more than double digits, and the increase is expected to be between 15% and 20%. “The 2008 production and sales plan formulated by China National Heavy Duty Truck Co., Ltd. is guaranteed to use 125,000 vehicles and strive for 135,000 vehicles, an increase exceeding the industry average.” Wang Wenyu is very confident about this.

Insufficient demand

Domestic passenger car market needs urgent development

Compared to the 41.5% year-on-year growth of Yutong's annual sales, the passenger car market in 2007, especially the large- and medium-sized passenger car segment with a size of more than 6 meters, was much flattered.

According to statistics from the China Automobile Industry D Association, from January to November last year, the production and sales of passenger cars including light passenger cars and passenger cars chassis totaled 212,800 and 219.9 thousand, an increase of 24.74% and 28.83% year-on-year, which outperformed the overall auto market. However, the sales volume of large and medium-sized passenger cars over 6 meters in the road passenger, bus, tourism, and commuter markets rose by only 14% in the first 11 months of last year. Especially in the bus market, the total volume has also declined.

"The market performance of large and medium-sized passenger cars in 2007 was not optimistic." Lu Zhenqing, deputy director of the China Railway Vehicle Machinery Group's Group Work Department, told reporters that in the overall 14% increase in the size of large and medium-sized coaches in the first 11 months of last year, the 70% increase was driven by exports, and the domestic market increased by 10%. the following.

Zhen Zhenqing believes that the lack of demand for large and medium-sized passenger cars in the domestic market is mainly due to the following: First, the sixth large-scale speed increase of railways and the construction of large-scale passenger dedicated lines inevitably squeezed the road passenger transport market; Second, the Olympic city represented by Beijing, The peak of large-scale replacement of buses has been completed in advance, and has affected the replacement of buses in other cities. Third, more and more BRTs (urban rapid transit systems) have been put into operation, and the substitution effect for ordinary urban buses is very obvious; Given the lack of policy subsidies such as fuel, it is difficult to start the rural passenger transport market that needs to be developed.

“I am cautiously optimistic about the passenger car market next year.” Zhen Zhenqing explained that, according to past tests, tightening monetary policy has little effect on passenger car consumption. July 1st this year, the implementation of State III standards for commercial vehicles, will encourage bus manufacturers to guide users to advance consumption, so the bus market in the first half of the year is expected to appear a wave of sales peak. After July, there will be a big drop in the market. However, under the dynamic demand of the international market, this year's market growth rate should not be lower than in 2007. It needs to be pointed out that to completely change the situation in the domestic passenger car market, the enterprises need to make great efforts to open up the market, and the government must also issue relevant supporting policies as soon as possible in the launch of the rural passenger transport market.

From a business perspective, the concentration of market resources to dominant companies in 2007 is very obvious. The four major enterprises represented by "One-pass three-long" (Yutong, Suzhou Jinlong, Dajinlong, and Xiaojinlong) accounted for about 50% of the market due to their brand, management, product, and export competitiveness. Share. This year, the above leading companies will continue to occupy the share of other companies.

Of course, there are also variables in the development of the passenger car market. Zhen Zhenqing believes that given the excessive proportion of fuel costs in the cost structure of passenger transport companies, it is difficult for them to rely solely on their own efforts. "If the fuel tax is introduced next year, we should not hold any hope for the passenger car market."

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