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On November 10, 2014, BorgWarner released its growth forecast for the next three years. It expects to maintain a double-digit year-on-year growth rate by 2017. China's business and turbocharged engine products business will be the focus of growth.
BorgWarner CEO James Verrier
Annual growth rate of 10-12%
According to BorgWarner, from 2014 to 2017, the operating income of the new powertrain business will maintain an annual organic compound annual growth rate of 10% to 12%. The so-called average annual organic compound growth rate refers to the change in pure new business income, excluding basic business growth or shrinking, product pricing, acquisitions and divestitures, and changes in foreign exchange rates. The new business of BorgWarner is purchased globally and there is a cooperation project with almost every major vehicle manufacturer.
According to the plan, BorgWarner expects annual revenues related to new business to reach US$950 million in 2015, and about US$1.0 to US$1.2 billion in 2016 and 2017 respectively.
In the next three years, approximately 70% of new business revenue will be generated from engine-related products such as turbochargers, ignition systems, emission control products, and engine timing systems including variable timing cam VCTs. And thermal management systems. The remaining revenue will come from products related to the drivetrain, including all-wheel drive systems, the fuel-saving DualTronic® transmission technology developed by BorgWarner, and traditional automatic transmission products.
Region: China takes the lead
By region, BorgWarner expects new business growth in all regions of the world, especially in China and North America.
According to BorgWarner, during the three-year plan period, new business operations in Asia account for 55% of the world's total revenue, while the Chinese market alone will reach 38% of global revenue. China is viewed by BorgWarner as the fastest growing market in the world and is expected to continue to accelerate its upward trend. From the perspective of BorgWarner, within the next three years, the company’s top 25 customers will have 8 OEMs of Chinese OEMs.
About 30% of new business comes from the Americas market, and North American vehicle manufacturers will account for about 25%, significantly higher than 19% in the 2012-2014 triennium.
The share of the European market will fall significantly, from 27% in the 2012-2014 triennium to only 15% in the next triennium. Europe still plays an important role in BorgWarner's growth. However, in the next few years, the market using BorgWarner's advanced powertrain technology and other components will be mainly outside Europe.
Product: Turbo is the focus
If divided by product, turbochargers will contribute 38% of operating revenue to new businesses, including commercial vehicles, diesel-powered passenger vehicles and gasoline-powered passenger vehicles. Turbocharging is a key technology used by automakers to deal with the tightening emissions and fuel consumption regulations while maintaining the vehicle's dynamic performance.
A 16% up and down new business income will come from the engine timing system, including a variable timing cam VCT. The BorgWarner Advanced Engine Timing System optimizes the flow of incoming and outgoing airstreams to reduce friction and reduce equipment weight, with the objective of improving fuel economy, reducing emissions, and increasing power density.
All-wheel drive technology will account for 14% of revenue share. Borgwarner said that the demand for advanced four-wheel drive systems has soared globally.
Another 8% of the revenue is related to BorgWarner's dual-clutch technology. This technology can improve the fuel economy of the vehicle and enhance the driving pleasure of a similar manual transmission while maintaining the convenience of an automatic transmission and the smoothness of shifting.
Commercial vehicle manufacturers will play an increasingly important role in the growth of BorgWarner. In the future, 5 of the top 25 partners will be commercial vehicle manufacturers, and 9% of the revenue will be related to the commercial vehicle market.
In addition, BorgWarner expects foreign exchange changes will also affect new businesses in the next three years, mainly because the weaker euro and Brazilian real will offset the impact of the stronger Chinese renminbi and Korean won.
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