Analysis of the development prospects of domestic internal combustion engine industry optimistic about diesel

The average annual compound growth rate of the gas turbine industry in the past 10 years is 13.5%, which is higher than the GDP growth rate over the same period. The sales volume of automotive internal combustion engines accounts for 15.2% of the internal combustion engine industry, but it accounts for as high as 75% of power consumption, and it is the most important sub-industry of the internal combustion engine industry.

At present, the internal combustion engine of the vehicle is mainly sold domestically. According to the data of 2008, the export volume is 430,000 sets, and the export share is only 5%. From the point of view of the past 10 years, with the improvement of domestic automobile engine technology, domestic auto production has always maintained a high engine self-supply ratio and maintained at more than 90%. Only imported high-end engines are supported by high-end models of joint venture manufacturers.

After years of rapid development of the Chinese automobile industry, the total sales volume of domestic automobiles has leapt to second place in the world, second only to the United States. We believe that the Chinese auto industry is still in its infancy and domestic demand will grow rapidly for a long time. Taking into account the pull of the export market, the total sales of domestic and export vehicles should maintain an annual compound annual growth rate of 15-20% in the next 10 years. The annual average compound annual growth rate of automotive internal combustion engines in the next 10 years should be approximately equal to the growth of the sales volume of the auto industry, which should remain around 15%-20%.

From the perspective of the domestic automobile internal combustion engine industry chain, the independent engine company in the diesel engine market has a relatively high market share of 57.4%, of which Yuchai's power market share is as high as 23.0%. The market share of independent engine companies in the gasoline engine sector was relatively low, at only 13.8%, of which Dongan Power and its affiliates accounted for 8.7% of the market. The independent engine companies in the domestic gasoline engine industry and diesel engine industry have all exhibited a certain monopolistic competition pattern. Comparing the competitive landscape of the independent engine company of the international automobile internal combustion engine, it is not difficult to find that the independent engine companies in the domestic diesel engine and gasoline engine industries have relatively high market share, especially in the gasoline engine field.

There are very few independent gasoline engine companies in the world, and large passenger vehicle groups are affiliated with gasoline engine companies. Our judgment is mainly due to the fact that international passenger vehicle companies have large production scales and own proprietary engine businesses. On the one hand, they are conducive to increasing the speed of new vehicle integration and development and to the market faster. On the other hand, it is conducive to improving operating margins. While domestic automobile passenger vehicles are still in the early stages of development, there are some small-scale vehicle manufacturers. For larger engine R&D and production, outsourcing is generally adopted. Therefore, independent gasoline engine companies have certain living space. We expect that this trend will continue in the future, and the market share of independent engine companies in the gasoline engine sector will continue to decrease.

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