Shock consolidation of spot pressure on domestic imported crude oil fell to 3050 yuan / ton

Crude oil hit New York last Friday, leaving the oil market back in the doldrums. Singapore's fuel oil prices have led the decline, almost hit a low point in the past four months, the cost of domestic crude oil quickly fell back to 3050 yuan (t price, the same below), resulting in domestic spot prices under greater pressure. The price of Shanghai fuel oil futures is basically still based on the current spot import costs. Currently, it fluctuates above the 3,000 yuan integer mark. The market is waiting for the effective support of the bottom support of 55 dollars in the early period of New York crude oil confirmation. The bullish crude oil market has a lot of news, including the reduction of stocks, the suspension of production of Nigerian oil plants, and the short covering of funds, all of which may support oil prices.
The supply in the local market has continued to increase, and the demand for imported oil remains weak. The main reason is that the price is relatively high, so various alternative products continue to be favored. But even if the sales are slow, the importer still maintains a certain margin of profit. With the uncertainties in the direction of international crude oil prices and the increase in the long-term supply of fuel oil, buyers are cautious and are not eager to enter the market. The spot price has been in a state of falling since the 3300 historical high price range fell. Compared with the import cost, the spot price will obviously continue to be under pressure and the importer's profits will also be squeezed due to the market's future oversupply. This month, Huangpu arrived about 1.1 million tons, which is the highest in the second half of the year, and there will be a large number of Western arbitrage vessels arriving at the Asian market early next year. The potential pressure cannot be ignored.
International crude oil prices have recently been estimated to stabilize, and the confirmation at the bottom of the previous period will increase investor confidence. The brightening of demand growth next year will also accelerate the pace of short-coverage funds and provide impetus for higher oil prices. The bombing of Nigeria’s oil pipelines resulted in the closure of approximately 180,000 barrels of crude oil per day and the suspension of three mobile terminals at Boini’s export terminals, which constituted a substantial gain for the crude oil market. In addition, OPEC is scheduled to hold a special ministerial meeting in Vienna on January 31st next year to discuss the issue of cutting quotas for crude oil production. This undoubtedly makes the space for falling oil prices seem to be extremely narrow, and the opportunity for oil prices to stabilize again is too great.
The Shanghai fuel oil futures price has been oscillating around 3,000 yuan in the short term, waiting for the restoration of technical indicators and a clear signal from the international market. The short-term trend still depends on the Singapore market.

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