PVC domestic demand weakness in foreign trade costs upside down

Since this year, due to factors such as the cost of calcium carbide, internal and external demand, futures fluctuations, and other factors, the domestic PVC market has continued to be rigid, failing to realize the expectation of a prosperous and prosperous market, and there has been an overcast situation in prices. Taking East China as an example, at the beginning of this year, domestic self-elevation prices for the five types of calcium carbide materials at the domestic market ranged from 6450 to 6600 yuan (t price, the same below), and they have been oscillated within the range of 100 to 200 yuan since then. The highest price ever reached Only 6750 yuan. Up to now, the mainstream price of common type five electric stone materials in East China is between 6600 and 6650 yuan.

Overcapacity pressures increase. China's PVC production capacity has reached 20.43 million tons at the end of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan”, ranking first in the world. In the domestic chlor-alkali industry, the imbalance between supply and demand, excess production capacity, fierce competition in the industry, and generally reduced profitability. In 2011, there were 67 national PVC production enterprises, with a production capacity of 21.62 million tons, an actual output of 13.1 million tons, and an operating rate of 60.6%. It is estimated that in 2012, the new annual production capacity of polyvinyl chloride will be 4.98 million tons. Starting from 2008, the domestic PVC plant operating rate was below 60% for 4 consecutive years, and the industry operating rate was 55% last year. From January to May of this year, the domestic new PVC production capacity is 800,000 tons, and the overall production capacity is continuously expanding. With the gradual release of new production capacity of chlor-alkali enterprises in the later period, the pressure of overcapacity will be aggravated.

Weak and weak domestic and foreign demand. In terms of domestic demand, as the real estate industry, which is mainly sourced from PVC, is still relatively weak, plastic profiles and pipes underwent macro-control, and the construction was not booming. Statistics show that in the first quarter of this year, the cumulative area of ​​new housing starts has increased by 0.3% year-on-year, the growth rate has dropped by 4.8 percentage points, the area under construction has increased by 25% year-on-year, and the growth rate has dropped by 10.5%, indicating that the future property industry will still be relatively weak. PVC The demand will be difficult to pick up. In terms of external demand, as international oil prices continue to fall, consumption levels in Europe and the United States and other countries have fallen, and PVC exports have been limited.

The cost is inversely related to the selling price. Since the beginning of this year, the cost of calcium carbide has remained high, and PVC companies have been under greater pressure and overhaul, causing the total amount of calcium carbide to decline. At present, the market price of calcium carbide sent to Henan in the 3600 ~ 3800 yuan, but the cost of calcium carbide after the drop in calcium carbide as high as 7250 ~ 7780 yuan, if you add financial costs, PVC costs up to 8,000 yuan. According to the current market price of calcium carbide process PVC, it is a luxury to up to 7,000 yuan, and most PVC manufacturers are under pressure to lower prices.

The contradiction between the alkaline chlorine balance is prominent. Since the beginning of this year, the demand for the downstream alumina industry in caustic soda has been relatively stable, supporting the liquid caustic soda market to operate at a high level, with an increase in production and better efficiency. After Japan’s nuclear power plant was shut down, the export of caustic soda was reduced due to the impact of power supply shortages, which provided certain favorable support for China’s export market. However, the major chlorine consumption products such as epichlorohydrin, chloroacetic acid, and chlorinated paraffin downstream of liquid chlorine are in a sluggish market. The sales pressures for PVC and liquid chlorine have increased, and the contradiction between alkaline chlorine has become prominent.

Facing the complicated market situation and many unfavorable factors that restrict the rebound of PVC prices, most PVC manufacturers stated that it is hard to choose between driving production and parking. If driving production is inevitable, it will face a more severe market test. The reporter learned from a PVC company in Henan that if the production, caustic soda profit is not enough to make up for the losses caused by PVC, according to 200,000 tons of ion-exchange membrane caustic soda, 200,000 tons of PVC annual production capacity is estimated to lose at least 10 million yuan per month. If production is stopped, financial costs will be difficult to digest and customers will gradually lose their profits. The credibility of financial institutions will be affected and the security of the capital chain will be jeopardized. Combined with a huge monthly fixed fee will directly affect the survival of the company. It can be seen that PVC companies face a dilemma between production and production suspension.

PVC futures are also weakly down. As a whole, the current stalemate in the domestic PVC market will continue. It is expected that the PVC weakness and sluggish market will be difficult to change in the short term. In the context of supply and demand oversupply, it is difficult to simply judge the market trend in light seasons. Future market factors will be more complex and changeable, and the multifaceted effects of spot, futures, physical, and financial mutual restraint will become increasingly prominent.

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