Aniline market is expected to become a watershed in July

Starting in May, the domestic aniline market continued to decline, the price fell from 10,800 yuan (t price, the same below) to the current 9,200 yuan, the low-end price even to 9,000 yuan, a drop of up to 15%, compared with the beginning of the year is still more than 4%. At the same time, since June, affected by the weakness of the downstream market and the decline in aniline production, the transaction volume has also shrunk simultaneously, setting a new low in the first half of the year, and most domestic companies have reported that they have entered a deficit state. Based on the basic support of high raw material costs, low operating rate of enterprises, and steady growth of exports, aniline rebound opportunities still exist. This round of adjustment of the aniline market is expected to achieve a soft landing in July, creating opportunities for the market to turn around.

Starting from the second quarter, the price of domestic pure benzene continued to decline, causing continuous pressure on the aniline market. From April to April, due to factors such as high nitric acid price and limited output of aniline, the domestic aniline market was still able to support, with a slight decline, and it was also considered to be one of the more stable products in the pure benzene industry chain. However, in May, the price of benzene was lowered five times in a row, and the nitric acid market, which is still the main raw material for aniline, remained weak. The reduction rate was more than 11%, resulting in a decline in the support of the aniline market. The major domestic market in North China, With the simultaneous downturn in East China, the market price hit a new low during the year.

Since June, domestic downstream rubber chemicals and dyestuffs markets have continued to slump, MDI companies have overhauled and stopped, and pesticide market demand has entered the off-season, causing the total market demand to continue to shrink. For the aniline market, once again aggravated the downward pressure, bearish psychological increasingly strong, affected by domestic aniline production enterprises in June, more than 40% of enterprises stop overhaul, start-up companies comprehensive operating rate is less than 60%, companies significantly reduced production The output dropped by more than 20% month-on-month, causing the market volume to shrink significantly, and the company's inventory also fell to a low level.

From the trend curve of aniline market, this year's overall trend of the aniline market and the adjustment process are basically in sync with pure benzene, and the early stage market is still slightly stronger than the trend of pure benzene. The cost support framework of the aniline market has not yet been broken, and the adjustment curve is within a reasonable range. It is expected that there will be little possibility of a sharp drop again. This is also the basis on which the aniline market is expected to move steadily. From the frontline of the market, we learned that the difference between the north and the south of the domestic market is also gradually narrowing. As the volume of the market shrinks, it shows that the high cost factor has prompted the bottom support to increase, and the recent adjustment will operate within a narrow range.

With regard to the current situation of the decrease in the overall cost of pure benzene and nitric acid, the operating rate of aniline enterprises will not drop sharply again, and the comprehensive utilization rate will increase significantly in July. The domestic aniline market is in a dilemma of a deadlock. Under the premise that the benzene and nitric acid markets remained stable, this round of adjustment of the aniline market is expected to achieve a soft landing in July, creating opportunities for the market to turn around.

It is understood that, due to the current substantial decline in most domestic basic chemical raw materials, downstream products such as MDI, rubber additives, dyes and other products have increased the profit margin, the pre-stop companies have started construction plans, will inevitably increase the aniline Demand. In particular, after the overhaul of the two MDI units of MDI Ningbo Wanhua Polyurethane Co., Ltd., an MDI company with a large demand for aniline, it will also drive in July.

Although these companies have their own aniline equipment, but with the price of aniline products down, these companies do not rule out the possibility of excessive purchases due to high cost of self-production, this situation has often occurred in the past two years The domestic aniline market has a strong rebound in the short term. Therefore, if the market for aniline goes down again in the short-term, in addition to the growth in conventional demand, it does not rule out the possibility of a sharp pre-increase in the short-term, which will help the market to rebound.

According to statistics, domestic exports of aniline continued to grow steadily from January to April, with an increase of more than 130% year-on-year, and the price was also higher than the domestic price of the same period. At the same time, it has been learned from some domestic import and export companies that foreign companies' scrutiny of domestic aniline enterprises is gradually increasing, which is also a good aspect of the aniline industry in the future.

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